October 26, 2026
Amid divisions in the political scene, Beirut awaits the repercussions of the Israeli elections scheduled for tomorrow, Tuesday, October 27, which are witnessing a sharp competition between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his most prominent rival, former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. Behind the scenes in the Lebanese capital, Jawhar’s question arises about whether a potential change in the Israeli leadership will lead to a radical shift in the policy followed towards Lebanon, or will it be limited to a change in method as conditions and military pressures remain constant.
In this context, an analysis published by the Lebanese newspaper “L’Orient Le Jour” on Monday, written by journalist Salah Hegazy, shed light on the repercussions of the Israeli entitlement. The analysis indicated that some Lebanese officials are betting on the departure of Netanyahu and the rise of a new leadership that may provide a political window out of the current impasse, although this bet is described as risky.
This vision is consistent with what was stated in a report by the American newspaper “The Washington Post”, published on October 21, which confirmed that the differences between Netanyahu and his rivals, such as Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, do not represent a fundamental difference in Israeli security goals, as much as they are related to differences in the methods of managing confrontations and the nature of relations with the American administration in Washington.
While Netanyahu insists on maintaining military pressure on Lebanon, conditioning the security of the northern border on weakening Hezbollah and undermining its capabilities, his opponents are proposing alternative approaches to managing the security files. However, this does not mean in any way their willingness to give up Israeli demands regarding the party’s weapons or accept an immediate and unconditional withdrawal from Lebanese territory.
On the Lebanese level, official and political concerns revolve around three main files: the continued Israeli military presence in the south, the pace of raids and offensive operations, and the extent of the expected readiness of the Israeli government to adhere to the current understandings and move towards arrangements that guarantee stopping the escalation and withdrawal.
The complexity of the Israeli electoral scene increases in light of the convergence of the results of the two camps, and the inability of either of them to achieve the required parliamentary majority (61 seats out of 120), which makes the nature of the future government coalition the decisive factor in formulating decisions related to the northern front.
Accordingly, the fall of the Netanyahu era – if it happens – does not necessarily translate into a decline in military pressure, and the arrival of Eisenkot is not a guarantee for stopping the attacks or achieving Israeli withdrawal. Even if the negotiating tools and communication tactics with Washington change, Israeli security demands will remain constant in essence.
Between the hopes of some Lebanese circles for a strategic breakthrough by changing the head of the political pyramid in Tel Aviv, and the reality of the continuity of previous policies with new faces, the biggest concern remains: Will the ballot boxes lead to a real opportunity to calm the Lebanese front, or will Beirut collide with the same conditions while its south remains a scene of flames?
