Türkiye .. Reducing dependence on external gas and turns into a regional energy center

Turkey is moving in an accelerated pace towards achieving a sufficiency that exceeds half of its natural gas needs by the end of 2028, by raising its local production and expanding its imports from the United States, in a move expected to make a fundamental shift in the energy map in the region and weaken the position of Russia and Iran as major exporters of Ankara.

These steps come in light of public pressure from Washington on its allies to cut economic ties in the energy sector with Moscow and Tehran. US President Donald Trump called on his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during their meeting at the White House on September 25, to reduce his country’s dependence on Russian energy.

Analysts note that Ankara benefits from the abundance of liquefied natural gas in the global markets to enhance its energy security and achieve its ambition to become a regional center for gas trade. “Türkiye is seeking to invest global surpluses in liquefied gas to secure its needs and expand its strategic options.”

Although Russia is still the largest supplier of Turkey, its share decreased from more than 60% two decades ago to about 37% in the first half of 2025, after most European countries reduced their Russian imports after the outbreak of the Russian -Ukrainian war in 2022.

Long -term gas contracts are approaching Moscow and Ankara, which supplies Turkey by about 22 billion cubic meters annually through the “Blue” and Turkish torrent “, from the end of it, and the Iranian gas contract of 10 billion cubic meters in the middle of next year expires.

Carbose suggests that Türkiye expand some of these contracts, but with more flexible conditions and lower quantities to enhance the diversity of supplies. In parallel, the Turkish government oil and gas company TPAO is developing local gas fields, while Turkish companies have expanded to establish new stations to import liquefied natural gas from the United States and Algeria.

According to Reuters accounts, local production and Turkish liquefied imports are expected to exceed 26 billion cubic meters annually starting in 2028, up from 15 billion cubic meters currently, with US LNG imports doubled. These quantities will cover more than half of the local demand of about 53 billion cubic meters, which will reduce dependence on the upcoming supplies through pipelines from Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan.

To confirm this shift, Ankara signed a series of long -term agreements with US companies worth $ 43 billion, most notably a 20 -year contract with Mercury last September. The annual absorptive capacity of LNG imports in Türkiye was 58 billion cubic meters, enough to cover its full needs.

Although Russian gas continues to flow at full capacity, the Kremlin indicated that cooperation with Türkiye is still strong. But energy experts, such as Alexei Pelogoriev from the Institute of Energy and Finance in Moscow, believe that Turkey can theoretically stop Russian imports within two to three years, although it will not do so because of the competitive prices of Russian gas, which gives it a negotiating power in front of other supports.

In the same context, Turkish Energy Minister Alp Arslan Bayrakdar explained that his country will maintain diversity in supply sources from Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan, but he indicated that liquefied American gas is a more efficient economic option.

Analysts expect Türkiye to rely on Russian and Iranian gas to meet its local needs, while re -exporting American liquefied gas and some of its local production to Europe after the European Union executed its decision to prohibit Russian gas permanently by 2028.

Indeed, the Turkish company Potash has signed agreements to provide Hungary and Romania with gas quantities, which enhances Ankara’s ambition to become a regional energy trading center. Meanwhile, Turkish -Russian relations continue in other fields, as the Russian company Rosatom adopts the first nuclear station in Türkiye, while Moscow remains the largest supplier of crude oil and diesel to Ankara.

(CNN Economic)