The Israeli security establishment has raised its operational alert level, amid estimates of the possibility of Hezbollah resuming its attacks against Israeli forces, at a time when Iran continues to top the list of priorities for Israeli intelligence and military based on estimates that its regime is approaching a stage of internal turmoil.
In a report published by journalist Avi Ashkenazi in the Maariv newspaper, he indicated that Israel is preparing for multiple emergency scenarios ahead of Yom Kippur, affected by the repercussions of the 1973 war and the attack of October 7, 2023, despite the lack of intelligence information, as of Saturday evening, indicating any party’s intention to launch an attack against Israeli forces.
On the ground, the report stated that an explosive device exploded on Saturday morning targeting an armored bulldozer belonging to an engineering force from the 4th Brigade during activity in the Saluki area in southern Lebanon, resulting in two soldiers being slightly injured and causing limited damage to the bulldozer. The 91st Division estimated that the device was old and planted by Hezbollah, without specifying the timing of its planting. In response to the incident, Israeli warplanes launched raids targeting Hezbollah targets in the towns of Mays al-Jabal and Nabatieh.
Israeli estimates indicate that Hezbollah may resort to exploiting the “fog season” to carry out operations to plant explosive devices. Considering that this method provides him with a tactical advantage that allows him to claim that the devices are old or deny responsibility for them, in order to avoid being accused of violating the ceasefire.
Despite caution on the northern front, the report pointed out that Hezbollah does not represent the core of Israel’s strategic security interest, as Iran is at the forefront. According to the report, the main mission of the Mossad and the Military Intelligence Division at the current stage is focused on working to overthrow the Iranian regime, while acknowledging that the exact timing for achieving this is not clear, despite the widespread belief that the regime is closer to a stage of instability compared to previous periods.
In the context of serious preparations, the Israeli army announced that it was raising its readiness on all fronts coinciding with “Yom Kippur,” including keeping the Home Front Commander, General Shai Kleber, on alternate duty at the command headquarters, and appointing an alternate commander in each region, in addition to raising the number of armed warplanes ready for immediate intervention.
Thus, Israel is dealing with a complex security scene that combines volatile field caution in southern Lebanon, and escalating strategic alert towards Iran, while placing the possibility of Hezbollah returning to military operations within the permanent calculations of the Northern Command.
