The race to succeed Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, has entered a more heated phase, after the second round of secret indicative voting in the Security Council showed the lead of Guyana’s candidate, Carolyn Rodriguez-Birkett, at a time when the female presence has begun to dominate the competition and opens the door to the possibility of a woman for the first time in the history of the international organization reaching the position of Secretary-General.
On Friday, August 21, the Security Council held the second round of non-binding voting to test the level of support enjoyed by each candidate, before moving later to more sensitive stages that could reveal the positions of the five permanent members of the Council, namely the United States, Russia, China, France, and Britain.
Rodriguez-Birkett topped the round after receiving 8 “encouraging” votes, while Costa Rican candidate Rebecca Greenspan and the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, received 7 votes each, according to diplomats who spoke after the polls ended.
The results showed that Rodriguez-Birkett was able to turn the race around compared to the first round that was held on July 30, when Greenspan came in first, which reflects a clear rapprochement between the two candidates and the difficulty of resolving the competition at this early stage.
According to results published by the newspaper “El Pais”, Rodriguez-Birquet received 3 “discouraging” votes, compared to 4 negative votes for Greenspan, while Grossi remained in an advanced position without being able so far to surpass the two leading candidates.
Voting within the 15-member Security Council takes place behind closed doors, with each member choosing between “encouraging” the candidate, “discouraging him,” or “not expressing an opinion.” The current rounds do not reveal whether the vote came from a permanent member state with veto power, or from one of the 10 non-permanent members.
The United Nations does not keep an official record of the results of these ballots, as voting papers are destroyed after each round, a mechanism used mainly to measure the attitudes of Council members and determine which candidates are able to continue in the race.
The race currently includes 8 candidates, namely Rodriguez-Birkett, Greenspan, Grossi, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa, former Senegalese President Macky Sall, and Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunho, in addition to the Ecuadorian diplomat of Lebanese origins, Yvonne Abdel Baqi.
Thus, the race witnesses a remarkable female presence, in light of the increasing political and diplomatic push towards choosing a woman to lead the United Nations for the first time since the founding of the organization in 1945.
The advancement of two female candidates from Latin America and the Caribbean is also consistent with a non-binding tradition based on geographical rotation between regions of the world, as Latin America is seen as one of the most fortunate regions in the current session after the Portuguese Guterres assumed the position for two consecutive terms. Reuters indicates that there is momentum to choose a candidate from the region, in parallel with calls to choose the first woman for the position.
Among the names that attracted special attention in the race was Yvonne Abdel Baqi, who entered the competition late after she was officially nominated by the Kingdom of Tonga on August 17, becoming the eighth candidate and the second from Ecuador. The United Nations officially confirms the registration of her candidacy on that date.
Abdel Baqi is an Ecuadorian diplomat who was born in Ecuador to immigrant parents from Lebanon. She lived in Lebanon during the war years between 1975 and 1990, an experience she recalled during her dialogue with member states and civil society at the United Nations.
During her speech on August 20, Abdel Baqi recalled her years in Beirut, and recounted how she was taking shelter with her three children during the bombing, considering that this experience prompted her to devote an essential aspect of her career to working for peace and preventing conflicts.
She pledged, if she assumed office, to give priority to preventing conflicts before they explode, and for the United Nations leadership to be more present in crisis areas, in addition to pushing for reform of the organization and the Security Council to better reflect the balance of power and geopolitical changes in the world.
Abdel Baqi held a number of prominent government and diplomatic positions, including the position of minister in Ecuador. She also represented her country as ambassador to the United States, France, and Qatar, and during her career she acquired a wide network of political and diplomatic relations.
Abdel Baqi previously told Ecuadorian radio that her candidacy has American support, and she also spoke publicly about her relations with President Donald Trump and former President Bill Clinton, but Washington has not officially announced its support for her candidacy.
But Abdel Baqi’s electoral start within the Security Council was not encouraging, as the second round showed that she received zero “encouragement” votes and 8 “discouragement” votes, according to a diplomat quoted by “The National” newspaper.
This result does not necessarily mean the official end of her chances, but it puts her in a late position compared to Rodriguez-Burkett, Greenspan and Grossi, especially as the race gradually approaches rounds in which the positions of the major countries become more influential.
At the forefront of the competition is Rodriguez-Birkett, formerly Guyana’s foreign minister, who moved from almost second place in the first round to the top of the second round, while Greenspan, the former vice president of Costa Rica, maintains her position as one of the leading candidates.
As for Grossi, an Argentine who holds the position of Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, he remains the most prominent male candidate so far, after he received 7 encouraging votes in the second round, but he is still behind Rodriguez-Birkett and without a clear advantage over Greenspan.
The competition is still open for additional names to enter, as Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzia said that the possibility of new candidates remaining if the race between the current names reaches a dead end and no one is able to gather the necessary support.
In the end, the candidate needs to obtain at least 9 votes from the 15 members of the Security Council, provided that none of the five permanent members veto him. If the candidate overcomes this hurdle, the Council submits its recommendation to the General Assembly, which includes 193 countries, to approve the appointment.
It is expected that the voting rounds will continue during the coming weeks, perhaps until late September or early October, before reaching a consensus name capable of passing the test of the five major countries.
The new Secretary-General is supposed to assume his duties on January 1, 2027, after Guterres ends his second and final term on December 31, 2026, after 10 years leading the international organization.
The race coincides with a renewed debate regarding the mechanism for selecting the Secretary-General, which has long been criticized due to the great secrecy surrounding negotiations within the Security Council.
UN General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock is leading a move to enhance transparency and participation in the selection process, through public dialogues with candidates and engaging member states and civil society in discussing their vision for reform, security, development and human rights. The United Nations emphasizes that these dialogues constitute an essential part of the new process to enhance transparency and accountability.
However, this path has raised political disagreements, with American and Russian objections to the attempt to expand the role of the General Assembly in a process in which the final say in practice remains for the Security Council, especially its permanent members.
The selection of the new Secretary-General comes at one of the most sensitive stages that the United Nations is going through, in light of increasing international conflicts and sharp divisions between the major powers, in addition to a financial crisis that is putting pressure on the organization’s ability to perform its tasks.
At the same time, the United Nations is facing a broad reform process within the “UN80” initiative, which aims to reduce costs, restructure a number of functions and programs, and raise the efficiency of the international institution. This was accompanied by increasing pressure from the Trump administration regarding the amount of spending and the way the organization works.
The Trump administration informed Congress of its intention to pay $725 million to the regular budget of the United Nations, as part of a broader package that also includes contributions to peacekeeping operations, but it linked future contributions to continuing reforms and reducing costs.
Between the progress of Rodriguez-Birkett and Greenspan, Grossi’s steadfastness in the front ranks, and the entry of Abdel Baqi, with his Lebanese roots and personal experience related to the war in Lebanon, the race to succeed Guterres seems open to more than one possibility, but its outcome may record a historic shift if it ends with the selection of the first woman to lead the United Nations since its founding more than 8 decades ago.
