October 29, 2026
Beirut – Abdullah Qamh:
The Phalange Party, through Minister of Justice Adel Nassar, is preparing to re-include the item of referring the two shipments of explosive materials seized in Dahr al-Baydar and Qasr on the agenda of the Council of Ministers in its next session, avoiding bringing it up in today’s session of the government palace. Nassar and his party are giving justification for giving a two-week period to reduce political tension and complete the legal study of the file. However, the actual goal of the Phalange is to avoid appearing to be participating in a political settlement concluded by the three presidents that led to the exclusion of the option of the Judicial Council, in addition to their desire to keep up with the “Lebanese Forces” party in putting pressure on the parties hesitant about the referral.
On the other hand, matters are moving towards a different settlement path led by President Joseph Aoun, which stipulates that the military court should end its investigations so that the government commissioner to the court, Judge Claude Ghanem, can bring charges against those involved. Aoun was convinced that keeping the file in the military judiciary would ensure speedy legal procedures, while transferring it to the Judicial Council would turn it into a political issue that would disrupt the course of justice and plunge the country into new crises, in addition to avoiding giving Hezbollah an excuse to disrupt the government or organize protest movements. With this option, the President of the Republic achieves several goals, including expanding investigations in response to international commitments, and making a concession to Hezbollah and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri by avoiding the Judicial Council in exchange for a conditional calm.
In the developments of the government session held today in the Grand Serail, the referral item was absent from the agenda, so that discussions were limited to the files of the Ministry of Environment, with the ministers of the “Forces” and Phalangists threatening to leave the session if the file was not put up for discussion. There are no indications on the horizon to include the item in the upcoming Baabda Palace session, in light of efforts to speed up investigations and militarily prosecute before their due date to relieve the embarrassment of all parties.
This path is integrated with a partial internal settlement that led to the reactivation of communication channels between Baabda Palace and the southern suburb, following indirect communications led by President Nabih Berri through security and political intermediaries. A “ground solution” led to the establishment of a calm and opened the door to arranging security-sponsored working meetings between representatives of the two parties, amid talk about the possibility of holding a summit meeting that would bring together the President of the Republic with the head of the “Loyalty to the Resistance” bloc, Representative Mohamed Raad.
At the same time, the diplomatic movement was active through the Qatari Prime Minister, who met with Representative Mohamed Raad and the President of the Republic, offering Qatari sponsorship of a bilateral dialogue in line with French and Iranian trends, warning of the danger of escalating tension and anticipating an American threat to open direct negotiation channels with Hezbollah in isolation from the Lebanese state, which prompted local and regional parties to activate internal communication channels to prevent the marginalization of the role of the official authority.
