October 24, 2026
The Israeli security establishment is monitoring remarkable shifts in the behavior of the Hamas movement more than three years after the October 7 attack, in light of exceptional threats attributed to the movement’s leaders regarding preparations to carry out new operations. According to a report prepared by journalists Itamar Eichner and Elisha Ben Kimon on the “ynet” website, the assessments submitted to the mini-ministerial council for political and security affairs (the cabinet) indicate that Hamas, despite the harsh blows it received, still has the ability to launch attacks, albeit smaller in scale than the events of October 7, which may include attacking military sites, capturing soldiers, or infiltrating Israeli towns.
The report explained that the head of the Israeli Military Intelligence Division, Major General Shlomi Binder, indicated during a cabinet session at the beginning of the month that out of six thousand people who crossed the fence on October 7, four thousand were killed and two thousand members remained. According to Israeli officials, Hamas is working to buy time to produce more weapons and recruit new members, based on estimates that “Israel’s hands are tied” from launching large-scale operations until the Israeli elections on October 27 and the American elections on November 3.
At the field behavior level, Israel has observed fundamental changes. Hamas members are increasingly appearing on the ground in military uniforms and exercising signs of control over the population. Estimates also show the transfer of combat means from tunnels to hospitals and schools, and the start of distributing weapons to civilians in anticipation of any pressure to hand over weapons, in addition to a shift in the declared rhetoric from calm to a more combative and bold tone.
Israeli estimates confirm that Hamas has become convinced that the chances of success of the political agreement are low, and it is ready to initiate an attack as soon as it senses that Israel is about to get a “green light” to act. The military establishment indicates that the central condition for progress in the plan, which is the disarmament of the movement, has not been achieved, with a “conclusive” intelligence assessment that Hamas does not intend to give up its weapons voluntarily, which will require the Israeli army to return to penetrate deep into the Strip.
Regarding human and structural capabilities, the military arm of Hamas is estimated at about 30,000 members, in addition to about 50,000 government employees, while the movement continues to pay high salaries to ensure the continuation of recruitment operations and avoid the disintegration of its structure. However, ministers in the cabinet believe that the current Hamas members are less skilled and trained, and the quality of their weapons has declined, in addition to the damage to the command and control system as a result of the frequent change of officials.
In terms of infrastructure, hundreds of rockets are still present in the Gaza Strip, but their ability to cause long-range damage has become very limited, while the Israeli army has not carried out ground operations in several areas such as Al-Mawasi and camps in the center of the Gaza Strip, where it is believed that there are weapons depots, manufacturing workshops, and rehabilitated tunnel networks. As for the West Bank and abroad, the movement maintains intentions and capabilities to take action, amid estimates that the absence of hostages in Gaza is forcing it to consider the option of capturing soldiers.
Financially and economically, Hamas’s situation has improved in recent months thanks to financial transfers via digital currencies from abroad – especially from Iran and Turkey – as well as its control over part of the aid. At the governance level, Hamas remains the dominant authoritarian force in the absence of any local alternative capable of threatening its control, despite the faltering reconstruction process and the absence of international bodies from work.
Regarding the mechanism for entering goods, Israel is preparing to gradually resume coordinating the entry of goods as winter approaches, in light of reports that Hamas recently canceled the taxes it imposed on trucks, which were generating about 180 million shekels per month. Despite merchants’ requests to resume coordination, the Coordination Unit for Government Activities in the Territories, “COGAT,” stresses tightening control through bank transfers to prevent Hamas from exploiting these resources to enhance its economic and military power.
