It may seem like a long distance between the Strait of Hormuz and the pipeline in Saudi Arabia and a generator bill in Lebanon, but the transfer of costs between them may be faster than the citizen expects. The new disturbance does not put pressure on one route for transporting oil, but rather it affected the Gulf Strait and the bypass route around it at the same time.
According to Kpler data, the number of monitored commodity ships that crossed Hormuz last Monday decreased to only four, compared to ten the previous day, while about 125 large commercial ships were crossing the strait daily before the outbreak of war on February 28. These numbers do not include ships that may have crossed after turning off the tracking devices, but they reveal the extent of fear that dominates navigation.
The problem is that the Saudi “East-West” pipeline, which transports oil from the east of the kingdom to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea bypassing Hormuz, was also out of service after a drone attack. The line extends for about 1,200 kilometers, and its maximum capacity is seven million barrels per day, but the quantities that crossed it recently ranged between 2.6 million and four million barrels per day.
International media reported that repairing the damage may take between three and five weeks, with the possibility of partially operating the line during maintenance work. But this deadline is not an official Saudi announcement, and stopping a line with this capacity does not automatically mean the disappearance of seven million barrels per day from the market, because this number represents its maximum capacity and not the actual pumping volume.
Will fuel be cut off in Lebanon soon?

The price of Brent crude rose during Tuesday’s trading to about $106 per barrel, after touching $108. But the price of a barrel alone does not directly determine what the Lebanese will pay at the station. Lebanon imports ready-made gasoline and diesel, and price tables are based on the average prices of these derivatives and the cost of importing them, not on the price of crude oil alone. Energy Minister Joe Al-Saddi had explained in July that pricing was based on the average prices of gasoline and diesel, noting that the war had also raised shipping costs.

Therefore, a one-day oil jump will not necessarily lead to a similar and immediate increase in Lebanon. However, if global diesel prices remain high during the period covered by the calculation, the impact will likely appear in future fuel tables. The cost of shipping and insurance may be incurred, especially if importers are forced to change routes or pay additional bonuses to cover navigation risks, noting that the latest fuel price schedule in Lebanon witnessed a significant increase in diesel prices, as one plate rose by 102 thousand Lebanese pounds, all at once, to reach 2,641,000 LBP.
As for generator owners, the effect appears at the end of the month, because the official tariff for a kilowatt is calculated based on the average price of a diesel fuel tank during the month. This means that a rise that lasts for days or weeks may be transferred to the subsequent subscription bill, even if the rationing hours remain the same.
The chain does not stop at electricity. Diesel fuel is used to operate trucks, refrigerators, factories, and generators belonging to institutions and shops. When its cost rises, the expenses of transporting, preserving and producing food increase, but the increase is not transmitted to all commodities in the same proportion or at the same time, because this is related to the volume of fuel consumption and the stock available at each institution.
High prices or shortage in the market?

Here a distinction must be made between two dangers. The first is the rise in prices, and its indicators have already begun globally, and the Lebanese sought it in the latest table issued today, Tuesday. The second is the fuel shortage in Lebanon, and it cannot be confirmed before knowing the size of the local stock, the dates of upcoming shipments, and whether importing companies faced delays or difficulties in insurance and transportation.
A previous report byLebanon24“In July, there was talk of a relative scarcity of diesel and a decline in distribution, coinciding with an increase in generator consumption, but sector sources confirmed at the time that the material was still available and that new ships were on their way to Lebanon.
What is new today is that the pressure is no longer limited to local distribution and increased demand, but rather has extended to global oil transportation routes, coinciding with the decline in the production of diesel by a number of Russian refineries. This raises the cost of securing shipments, but it does not alone prove the existence of a crisis inside Lebanon.
In practice, the citizen will feel the danger in two stages: a possible increase in fuel prices during the coming schedules, then a gradual rise in the generator, transportation, and commodity bills. As for the scene of shortages and queues, it is not an inevitable result yet, but rather a scenario linked to the prolonged disruption of the Saudi line, the continued weakness of navigation in Hormuz, and the ability of Lebanese importers to keep shipments on time. Until local indicators prove the opposite, the most immediate danger is more expensive fuel, not lost fuel.