Military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran is deepening in a way that raises increasing concern in the West and Israel, with the revelation of information about Russia transferring explosives, ammunition, and components for drones to Iran with the aim of helping it rebuild its military arsenal that was damaged by Israeli and American attacks, via a sea route in the Caspian Sea that is almost beyond the West’s ability to monitor or intercept.
According to a report published by the Israeli “N12” website, citing the “NBC News” network, Russia is sending components for drones, ammunition, and TNT-type explosives to Iran via the Caspian Sea, as part of efforts aimed at rehabilitating Iranian weapons stockpiles that were damaged as a result of American and Israeli air strikes.
The NBC News report was based on a European government document that was verified by a Western security official.
The document describes shipments that include raw materials that are vital to the Iranian military industry, including TNT explosives, parts and components for assembling drones, in addition to ammunition intended for battlefields.
According to the report, these materials are directed directly to Iranian military industries, with a special focus on rebuilding the “Shahed” suicide attack aircraft system, which formed one of Tehran’s most prominent military strengths before it suffered major damage during the war.
Estimates contained in the document indicate that Moscow and Tehran are treating these shipments as part of stable, long-term strategic cooperation, and not just an emergency and temporary solution to compensate for losses.
The shipping route is of particular importance, as supplies pass through the Caspian Sea, which is surrounded by only 5 countries: Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan.
According to the report, Western powers do not have, under international law, the legal ability to access its waters or permission to move militarily in them.
Russian cargo ships sail directly towards Iranian ports, with automatic transmitters to determine their locations turned off, without passing through straits or international shipping lines that are monitored by the United States and its allies.
According to the report, the geographical and legal status of this route gives the supply axis almost complete protection, as it prevents the imposition of a naval blockade or the implementation of interception operations by Western warships.
These developments come after years during which the arms movement went in the opposite direction, as Iran provided Russia with thousands of drones and technological support that was used in the war in Ukraine, while Moscow has now become the party contributing to arming its ally and rebuilding its military stock.
The report believes that one of the Russian interests is to push the United States to distribute its attention and military resources on more than one front, as Iran’s possession of an effective military arsenal capable of threatening American targets in the Middle East may force Washington to allocate additional resources to the region at the expense of its assistance to the war in Ukraine.
The report also points to another regional dimension, as replenishing Iranian stocks is supposed to allow Tehran to continue arming its allies in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Syria and Iraq, which also contributes to deepening Russia’s involvement in the regional arena.
On the other hand, Israel is trying to disrupt this axis, as it officially announced that it destroyed 5 Iranian ships in the Caspian Sea during Operation “Lion’s Roar.”
According to the information received, the attack was possible after real-time positioning and monitoring operations carried out by 3 soldiers and a female officer from the Israeli Intelligence Corps.
The locations of some ships were determined while they were anchored in the port, while other ships were sailing outside it in an attempt to get away from the Israeli army.
After monitoring the ships, joint teams from the Israeli Navy and Air Forces carefully developed the operation plan, with the aim of adapting the type of ammunition used and achieving the maximum possible effect.
The operation was completed within a short period of time, while senior Israeli army officials followed developments in real time from the Air Force operations room and instructed the pilots to destroy the ships.
However, basic questions remain without clear answers, as Western intelligence, according to the document on which the report was based, declined to provide a public estimate of the exact quantities of explosive materials and components that were transferred from Russia to Iran.
It is also not yet clear to what extent these supplies actually succeeded in compensating for the losses suffered by Iranian military capabilities during the strikes.
In the United States, government officials refrain from issuing conclusive estimates on the extent of the original damage to Iranian capabilities, due to intelligence limitations and the fear of underestimating Iran’s ability to withstand and maintain its military capabilities.
On the other hand, Russia continues to deny transferring military equipment to Iran outside the framework of the announced agreements, while Moscow and Tehran have refused to comment directly on the results and details contained in the document revealed by NBC News.
Thus, the Caspian Sea route reveals a very sensitive aspect of the Russian-Iranian partnership: an internal and largely protected supply line capable of restoring Tehran’s military capabilities away from traditional Western monitoring and interception tools, which makes the battle over the Iranian arsenal far beyond the limits of air strikes alone.
