The fragile truce between the United States and Iran is entering critical hours as its expiration date approaches on Monday, in light of the faltering negotiations aimed at extending the ceasefire and reaching a settlement to end the war that has been ongoing for months, amid American indications that divisions within the governance structure in Tehran have become one of the most prominent obstacles to reaching an agreement.
A senior White House official described the situation between Washington and Tehran as “stagnant,” noting that he had not heard, as of Friday afternoon, about any arrangements to extend the ceasefire, according to what was reported by the “Politico” website.
The memorandum of understanding signed by Washington and Tehran last June 17 set a 60-day negotiation period with the aim of reaching a final settlement, making August 17 the deadline for expiration.
The American official, who did not reveal his identity, said that the issue is not related to how close or far the two parties are from the agreement, but rather whether Iran is ready to sit at the negotiating table and reach an understanding, adding that Tehran “has not done that yet.”
American officials believe that the complexities of the negotiation are not only related to the direct differences between Washington and Tehran, but also to the discrepancies within the Iranian regime, as they point out the presence of three main wings represented by the Revolutionary Guard, the clergy, and the government leadership.
According to a White House official, reaching an understanding with one of these parties does not necessarily mean the approval of the other parties, stressing that any agreement needs the approval of all decision-making centers in order to be implementable.
He added that the American side clearly knows its position, but it does not often know the final Iranian position, considering that Tehran continues to amend its negotiating conditions.
The differences between the two sides focus on a number of basic files, most notably the frozen Iranian financial assets, the status of ship movement in the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to the US naval blockade imposed on Iranian ports.
In an attempt to push Tehran to make concessions, the administration of US President Donald Trump is betting on tightening economic pressure during the next stage.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent said that Washington will launch a new “economic isolation” campaign next week, with the aim of increasing pressure on the Iranian economy.
A second White House official also confirmed that Trump reserves all “options” if Iran continues to support armed groups and refuses to reach an agreement.
The official pointed out that the tough sanctions and the naval blockade have greatly weakened the Iranian economy, considering that it is in Tehran’s interest to reach an agreement, otherwise it “knows what will happen.”
In contrast, the Iranian leadership raised its demands regarding the ceasefire, to include obtaining compensation for war damage, releasing frozen Iranian assets, and stopping American threats against Iran and its allies.
The Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the most complex issues in the negotiations, after shipping traffic through it declined sharply as a result of tension between Washington and Tehran.
Iran demands the possibility of imposing transit fees or other financial allowances on the movement of ships in the strait, a demand that the United States categorically rejects.
A senior American official said that any fees, financial allowances, or controls on traffic through the Strait are “not up for discussion,” stressing Washington’s refusal to grant Iran any authority of this kind.
This coincided with the United States threatening to maintain its naval blockade of Iranian ports indefinitely, while Tehran continues to adhere to its positions regarding the Strait, sanctions, and frozen financial assets.
A number of experts doubt the ability of economic pressure alone to push Iran to make major concessions, given its long experience in dealing with the sanctions and economic restrictions imposed on it over the past years.
A person familiar with the negotiations said that the Trump administration may discover that the Iranians’ “pain threshold” is too high, which may make economic pressure insufficient to reach American goals.
He warned that time is running out for Washington if it seeks to achieve a level of stability before the US elections, at a time when internal pressures are increasing as a result of rising fuel prices and the repercussions of the war on the economy.
The August 17 deadline is of particular importance because it constitutes the time point at which the negotiation period specified in the memorandum of understanding is supposed to end, which puts the two parties before two basic options: extending the truce and entering a new negotiation phase, or returning to escalation with the continuation of the blockade and economic and military pressures.
This comes at a time when the Strait of Hormuz files, sanctions, and frozen assets have become interconnected elements in the negotiation process, after the dispute between Washington and Tehran went beyond the nuclear file to include navigation, trade, and energy arrangements, and the shape of the relationship between the two parties after the war.
As the end of the deadline approaches, fears increase that the lack of understanding will lead to renewed confrontation, especially since the current truce has remained fragile throughout the past period, while both parties have continued to raise the ceiling of their conditions and use military and economic pressure cards.
The coming hours remain crucial in determining the direction the crisis will take: either reaching a formula that allows for the extension of the ceasefire and opening a new window for negotiations, or entering again into a phase of escalation whose repercussions may extend to the energy and navigation markets in the Strait of Hormuz and the entire region.
