Will Washington use the Houthi advance to punish Saudi Arabia for refusing normalization with Israel? A controversial hypothesis circulated by Israeli media, and reported by Maariv newspaper, from the Syrian-Kurdish writer and political researcher Ali Tami, who considered that the United States seeks to curb the rise of the Kingdom as an independent regional power, and push it, under the weight of political, economic and security pressures, to accept an agreement that it does not want on Washington’s terms.
Ali Tammy is a Syrian writer and political researcher of Kurdish origins, who deals in his analyzes of regional transformations and the relations of international powers in the Middle East.
Tammy believes that Washington wants to prevent Saudi Arabia from turning into an independent force capable of pursuing a policy that is not subject to its will, after Riyadh over the past years rejected a number of steps that the United States pushed for, including joining the Abraham Accords and signing a peace agreement with Israel.
He spoke, according to his claim, about proposals to link Saudi Arabia with energy and trade corridors that pass through Jordan and Haifa, indicating that the Kingdom preferred instead to deepen its relations with Syria, Turkey, and Pakistan, and build a wider margin to move independently.
Tammy likened the current situation to what happened with Muhammad Ali Pasha in the 19th century, when Britain supported him at first, before changing its position after realizing that his growing regional power might threaten the existing balance.
According to his comparison, the United States today believes that Saudi economic and military power has become too great to be left without restrictions, linking these concerns to the Saudi rapprochement with Türkiye, Pakistan, and Syria.
He described Saudi Arabia as a regional power that is growing “quietly,” considering that this raises Western fears that Riyadh will reach a stage in which it will be able to manage a policy independent of Washington.
The Yemeni file occupies a fundamental position in Tammy’s reading, as he considered that the United States’ refusal to intervene directly to stop the Houthi advance along the western coast and in the Mokha region is not random.
He believed that the Houthis’ pressure on Saudi Arabia, by threatening oil installations, trade routes, and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, practically serves the interests of parties wishing to weaken Riyadh.
Tammy did not say that the Houthis are acting in the name of Washington, but he considered that their continued advance creates economic and security pressures that reduce the margin of Saudi action and increase the Kingdom’s need for external arrangements.
As for the sharpest aspect of his analysis, it was his statement that despite the confrontation between Washington and Tehran, there are arenas in which the interests of both parties intersect when weakening Arab countries and keeping them hostage to external settlements.
He claimed that a sharing of influence between the United States and Iran had actually arisen in Iraq, warning of the possibility of applying a similar model in dealing with Saudi Arabia.
Tammy concluded by calling on Riyadh not to be satisfied with defending itself, but rather to build an independent regional sphere of influence, by providing direct support to the Sunnis in Lebanon and Iraq, strengthening the Syrian government, and expanding Saudi involvement in Sudan, Somalia, Libya, and Yemen.
In his opinion, the goal should be to prevent Saudi Arabia from reaching a situation in which it finds itself besieged and weak, and then forced to accept political settlements imposed on it from abroad.
