Mossad circles estimate that the Iranian regime may fall during the first quarter of 2027, provided that the United States continues its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and does not back down under pressure, amid the Israeli-American conviction that Tehran is in a much worse situation than it appeared when the understandings agreement was signed.

According to a report by journalist Amit Segal in the “Israel Hayom” newspaper, the Iranian issue dominated the “MEAD” conference that was held this week in Washington with the participation of figures from the Gulf states, the Middle East, and the United States, after the discussion shifted from how to confront the arms of the Iranian axis to the necessity of subjugating the Supreme Leader’s regime as it is the most important issue in the region.

During the conference, a very senior Israeli official, who currently holds a civilian position, revealed the details of a new targeting operation that, according to his account, affected the entire Iranian leadership. He said that a meeting of officers was scheduled for Saturday at 9:30 a.m., before information arrived about a meeting of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence at 8:30.

The dilemma was the necessity of carrying out the two strikes simultaneously to preserve the element of surprise, while the Ministry of Intelligence meeting was scheduled to last one hour, meaning that it would end simultaneously with the start of the second meeting.

According to the official, someone suggested carrying out the attack at 9:40, based on the fact that intelligence officers in various countries tend to prolong their meetings. The proposal was adopted, and the meeting was actually delayed, allowing all participants to be killed during the briefing.

Segal pointed out that the same conference in September 2024 was about the difficulty Israel faces in subjugating the arms of the Iranian axis. At that time, Yahya Sinwar was still holding hostages, and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah did not know what awaited him a week later, while Iran itself was not strongly present in the discussions.

In September 2025, the conference coincided with Israel’s attempt to assassinate the leadership of the Hamas movement in Doha, and the prevailing view at the time was that there was a need for an entity capable of curbing and calming Israel.

However, this year’s conference was held under the title of the alliance against Iran, with the differences over the necessity of dealing with it disappearing, and subjugation of the clerical regime being considered the most important priority in the Middle East. The participants concluded that the Islamic Republic is in a much worse situation than was thought when the Memorandum of Understandings was signed, although the course of its crisis may continue for a long period.

Former Mossad chief Dadi Barnea estimated last year that effective sanctions could bring down the Iranian regime within a year. After about 6 months of the American blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, it is estimated within the Mossad, according to the report, that Washington’s continued pressure without fatigue or retreat will lead to the fall of the regime during the first quarter of 2027.

Segal quoted a senior American official as saying: “This will be a new Middle East.”

Only a few months ago, the prevailing belief was that Iran emerged from the war superior, in light of what was described as a humiliating surrender by US President Donald Trump and abandonment of all the goals of the war. However, very few still hold this appreciation today.

In this context, a White House official asked: “The Supreme Leader did not attend his father’s funeral, and his brother was forced to wear a mask. Is this what the victor looks like?”

Although the matter was not explicitly announced, the prevailing assumption is that the pressure on Iran will not decline, but will escalate after the elections in Israel and the United States. If the Republican Party wins, Trump will feel freer than ever to deal with Tehran.

If the Republicans lose, the report indicates that previous experiences have shown that presidents who lose control of the Capitol and internal files tend to intensify their involvement in foreign policy. Since Trump will not run for another election in his political career, he may become more impulsive in confronting Iran. On the other hand, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s margin of action remains less clear if he is at the head of a transitional government.

The report also raised a question about whether a large-scale, high-intensity war against Iran actually serves Israel’s interests, at a time when the United States and the world are facing other issues that may be more urgent.

A prominent figure in the worlds of politics and technology warned during the conference that the world is “currently digging its grave due to a misunderstanding of artificial intelligence,” considering that within 20 years humanity may face the threat of annihilation as a result of the combination of artificial intelligence and quantum computers.

She added that the only chance of survival may be for quantum computers to come to the conclusion that they still need humans to supply them with electricity.

Between the Mossad’s bet on the fall of the Iranian regime in early 2027 and the warning of a technological danger threatening humanity within two decades, the report concluded with dark irony that the reconstruction of Gaza and the elimination of the Iranian nuclear project may suddenly seem less urgent.