Iran has renewed its adherence to its conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic, in direct response to US President Donald Trump’s statements regarding the necessity of completely reopening the vital waterway, coinciding with indications that Tehran is betting on the time factor and increasing internal pressures on the US administration.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said, in an interview published on Saturday, that the United States must meet the required conditions before normal shipping movement through the Strait of Hormuz resumes.
Araqchi explained, in an interview with the Iranian newspaper “Shahrara”, that the separate talks that Tehran is holding with the Sultanate of Oman focus on determining a maritime route through the strait, in light of the continuing disturbances that affected shipping traffic during the confrontation with the United States.
Regarding the possibility of resuming direct negotiations with Washington, Araqchi stressed that Iran has not yet taken a decision to return to talks with the American side, considering that the messages exchanged through Qatar and Pakistan do not rise to the level of negotiations.
These positions come at a time when Pakistani movements on the Tehran-Washington line have recently intensified, as Pakistani Foreign Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar met on Friday with the US Chargé d’Affairs in Islamabad, Natalie Baker.
During the meeting, Dar stressed that dialogue constitutes the only way forward and establishing peace, considering that the framework agreement signed by Iran and the United States last June represents an important path that can be built upon to reach a settlement.
This comes amid a sharp escalation in the war of words between Tehran and Washington over the Strait of Hormuz, as each party insists that it has the upper hand in the strategic corridor, which constitutes one of the most important arteries of energy and trade in the world.
In parallel with the official positions, a number of experts and analysts believe that Iran is increasingly betting on the time factor, by following a policy of waiting for the party that will face the greatest pressure first.
According to this reading, Tehran is betting that the Trump administration will be exposed to more political and economic pressure the longer the confrontation lasts, especially with the approaching midterm elections in November, and in light of the sensitivity of rising fuel prices to the American voter.
This issue gains additional importance for Trump, after reducing energy costs was one of his most prominent election promises, while the tension in the Gulf region and the Strait of Hormuz led to increasing pressure on energy markets and fuel prices.
Democrats are also seeking to turn the economic repercussions of the war with Iran into a key issue in the midterm election campaign, especially with regard to rising prices and the cost borne by the American citizen.
In contrast, Washington is betting that continued economic pressure and the naval blockade will push Iran toward making concessions.
The US blockade limits Iran’s ability to export oil, which increases pressure on its economy, which is already facing accumulated crises, while the US administration believes that the continuation of these pressures may change the calculations of the Iranian leadership.
But the negotiations are not only facing a crisis of confidence between the two parties, as American officials believe that the divisions within the Iranian government structure make reaching a unified position more complicated.
According to American officials, the main decision centers in Iran are divided between 3 wings: the Revolutionary Guard, the clergy, and the government leadership, which means that obtaining the approval of one party does not necessarily guarantee the approval of the other parties.
A White House official had indicated that any agreement needs the approval of all decision-making centers in order to be implementable, considering that the Iranian position changes repeatedly during the course of the negotiation.
Tehran has set six basic conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz and returning to negotiations, the most prominent of which are the release of Iranian financial assets frozen abroad, the lifting of the US naval blockade imposed on Iranian ports, the withdrawal of US forces from the vicinity of Iran, the payment of compensation for war damage, and the cessation of what it describes as “hostile actions” on various fronts.
The Strait of Hormuz occupies a central position in the current confrontation, not only because of its military importance, but also because it constitutes one of the most prominent corridors for global energy trade, and any prolonged disruption of ship movement through it will directly reflect on the prices of oil, gas, shipping, and insurance.
The Strait has also become a major negotiating card used by Tehran in the face of American pressure, while Washington insists that freedom of navigation in it cannot be subject to Iranian conditions, fees, or restrictions.
Thus, the confrontation between the two parties today appears to be a battle over time as much as it is a battle over the terms of negotiation, as Washington is betting that the blockade and economic isolation will put pressure on Tehran, while Iran is betting that the political and economic cost of the war within the United States will rise before it is forced to retreat.
