US President Donald Trump is moving towards avoiding the resumption of military attacks against Iran, provided that Tehran or the Houthis in Yemen do not launch any new provocations, despite the continuation of US military preparations in anticipation of any emergency, according to what Reuters reported, citing three informed sources.
The sources explained that Trump informed his senior national security advisor, during the past few days, that he was studying the option of refraining from launching new strikes, based on intelligence briefings and evaluation meetings that dealt with the repercussions of the ongoing war and the available options.
In the same context, a White House official confirmed that Trump, in his capacity as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, is in charge of ensuring the protection of American interests, noting that the United States is entrenched behind a strong position thanks to its control over the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of the Iranian economy, stressing that the president alone has the final decision.
According to Reuters, Trump’s position ranged between threatening to expand military operations and moving towards calm, at a time when observers believe that he has not yet decided on his strategy to end this unpopular war locally, which was launched with American-Israeli coordination last February.
In terms of diplomatic communications, sources revealed that Trump, during phone calls he made in the past two weeks, sought the opinions of both Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The two leaders urged the US President to avoid military escalation, without the latter committing to a definitive position.
Informed sources explained that Trump informed Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in a phone call on October 31, of his intention to launch an attack on Iran after the elections, but the Saudi Crown Prince appealed to him to back down, stressing that the economic sanctions were beginning to bear fruit. For its part, the Turkish presidency reported that Trump had made three calls with Erdogan since October 28, during which the need to defuse tension between Washington and Tehran was stressed – especially in the November 7 call.
Intelligence and economically, estimated reports indicated that the naval blockade and economic sanctions have caused severe damage to the Iranian economy, and that their continuation ensures that pressure on Tehran remains. As part of these efforts, the US military seeks to prevent weapons and sanctioned materials from reaching Iran via land routes or the Caspian Sea, according to previous reports by Reuters.
As economic pressures continue, three sources concerned with military planning confirmed the readiness of American forces to escalate when necessary. A third aircraft carrier is expected to head to the Middle East soon to replace one of the existing carriers, with the possibility of the three carriers remaining together if field necessity requires it.
Despite indicating the possibility of targeting Iranian underground nuclear facilities, intelligence officials believe that launching new attacks will not bring about a radical change in the Iranian negotiating position. The briefings also showed that some US weapons stocks had declined to alarming levels, after Washington used most of its long-range precision munitions without renewing them, according to previous reports.
In an official response to these facts, a White House official stressed that the US Army possesses sufficient equipment to achieve the strategic goals of the Supreme Commander and further, at a time when Israeli officials continue to pressure the US administration to begin a new military campaign against Tehran.
The Trump administration faces a crossroads between two main options: maintaining economic and military pressure or returning to direct confrontation, amid ongoing military preparations and varying estimates regarding the feasibility of additional strikes in modifying Iranian behavior.
