November 14, 2026
The Israeli military establishment is oscillating between the options of field escalation and the prospects for a political settlement, as the Israeli army continues to develop its insurance plans to deal with various possible developments with Iran, based on a report published by the Israeli “Channel 13”.
Israeli planning is based on three main scenarios: The first is for Tehran to launch a large-scale and planned attack against Israel and American military bases in the Middle East, and then Tel Aviv will activate military plans prepared by the Air Force in coordination with the US Central Command, anticipating direct involvement of Washington in combat operations.
The second scenario, which enjoys the preference and greatest interest of the Israeli army leadership, is based on US President Donald Trump taking a decision to launch a broad military campaign against Iran in the event that the political path falters. The military establishment estimates that this campaign will continue for days or weeks, including joint air strikes targeting missile sites, drones, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure, in addition to its focus on striking the Iranian economy and energy sector.
On the other hand, the third scenario raises the possibility of reaching a political settlement between Washington and Tehran, allowing the US President to announce the achievement of his goals and end the confrontation. Despite Israeli security reservations about the repercussions of this option, Tel Aviv views it positively.
In a related context, Israeli intelligence reports revealed that Iran continues to enhance its military capabilities by producing about 50 surface-to-surface missiles per month, recording an increase in the production rate of about 20% compared to previous periods.
These three scenarios reflect the state of constant alert and preparedness in Tel Aviv for various possibilities, starting with a comprehensive military confrontation with American participation, and reaching a political settlement governed by the outcomes of the American-Iranian negotiations.
