November 1, 2026

Tehran is between the anvil of external threats and the hammer of internal tension

The escalating American and Israeli military threats against Iran coincide with an intensified security campaign taking place in areas with a non-Persian nationalist and sectarian majority, amid growing fears that the internal repercussions of any external confrontation will turn into an additional pressure factor on internal stability.

Human rights reports stated that the security campaigns, characterized by night raids and detention of citizens without presenting judicial orders, were mainly concentrated in the Kurdish, Baluchi, and Ahwazi Arab regions, and targeted civil, religious, labor, environmental, and citizen activists, who were transferred to unknown destinations.

In the Ahwaz region, the “Hrana” agency, affiliated with the Human Rights Organization in Iran, and Ahwazi human rights organizations, confirmed that the forces of the Revolutionary Guard Intelligence Service raided at dawn on Thursday, October 29, the homes of Sunni Arab Ahwazi citizens in the “Shawar” area of ​​the Karkheh District, and resulted in the arrest of 6 people between the ages of 20 and 25 years. The total number of detainees in Ahvaz increased to 8 people, with the addition of two people who were arrested in the “Malashiah” area.

In the same context, the human rights organization “Hengaw” documented a raid carried out by the forces of the Ministry of Intelligence on October 26, targeting the homes of two Sunni religious activists in the Malashiyah neighborhood in the city of Ahvaz, where they were arrested and some of their personal belongings were confiscated. Although the families of the detainees contacted the relevant authorities, no official statements were issued explaining the reasons for their arrest, the charges against them, or their places of detention.

The arrests were not limited to Ahvaz, but rather extended to the Kurdish regions, as the authorities arrested the Kurdish activist Sharif Bahor in the city of Marivan, and the civil activist Fereshteh Ezdi in Sanandaj, against the backdrop of her digital activity and support for the families of the victims. The list of detainees also included minor student Diako Abdi and labor activist Raya Framarzi, while Idris Manbari, a member of the board of directors of the “Nojin” Cultural and Social Association in Sanandaj, faces a prison sentence because of his cultural activity.

In the Baluchi regions in southeastern Iran, raids were reported to have been carried out, resulting in the arrest of a number of citizens and activists. Among them are the three brothers Ali, Nazar Muhammad, and Nizar Naroui, following the raid on the town of Pumpur, in addition to Hafez Shuaib, an activist close to Dar Al Uloom in Zahedan, Farzad Dehqani, and Idris Totazhi, who was taken to an unknown destination without any official announced charges being brought.

These campaigns acquire extreme security sensitivity due to their coincidence with the military and political pressures imposed on Tehran, and the border and strategic location of these areas. The Kurdish regions are linked to the Iraqi Kurdistan region, and Balochistan is located adjacent to Pakistan and Afghanistan, while the Ahwaz region has great economic and strategic importance because it contains huge reserves of oil and gas.

Political and security analyzes indicate that there are official Iranian concerns about exploiting national and sectarian tensions in conjunction with external pressures. On the other hand, human rights organizations warn that expanding the circle of prosecutions and arrests will exacerbate internal tension in areas that already suffer from structural restrictions and accumulated political and social problems.

Between the requirements of national security and the warnings of human rights organizations, the Iranian authorities face a complex equation through which they seek to fortify the internal front against any external escalation, without the security measures leading to inflaming the situation in the border areas, which are at the forefront of the country’s security calculations in the next stage.