An expected jump for European gas, with the Strait of Hormuz in the spotlight

Natural gas prices in Europe witnessed a noticeable rise, driven by continued concerns about liquefied gas supplies coming from the Gulf region, amid faltering efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing repercussions of the war with Iran.

In morning trading, Dutch gas futures, which are the European standard, rose by 2.2% to reach 73.67 euros per megawatt-hour, after falling by more than 9% over the past week.

This increase came after Qatar announced the extension of force majeure on liquefied natural gas supplies directed to the Italian company “Edison” until the beginning of December, coinciding with the continued major disturbances facing the movement of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

These developments coincide with increasing pressure as winter approaches. The level of filling European gas reserves reached about 71%, compared to a seasonal average of about 87% over five years, while the percentage of reserves in Germany did not exceed 57%.

Gas prices remain dependent on the course of the current crisis, as they are likely to rise further if supply disruptions continue in conjunction with a very cold winter. On the other hand, prices may decline if efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz succeed and gas flows return to their normal levels.