The confrontation between Iran and the United States is entering a stage that Israeli security officials describe as a “war of hours,” with each side betting on the other’s ability to withstand pressure, while Israel closely monitors the Iranian nuclear program and Tehran’s missile capabilities, and raises the level of preparedness for fear that the economic suffocation will push Iran to expand the circle of confrontation towards the Gulf states and American interests in the Middle East.
According to a report by journalist and military analyst Amir Bouhbut on the Israeli Walla website, the Israeli security establishment estimates that Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment since Operation Rising Lion, which is seen in Israel as “no small achievement.”
However, the main problem, according to these estimates, is that attempts to reach an agreement within the negotiations between the United States and Iran have not yet led to the removal of enriched uranium from the hands of the Iranian regime and out of the country.
According to the report, these materials are still buried inside the underground facilities targeted by the United States and Israel.
Against this background, the Israeli intelligence community has intensified its monitoring of various Iranian facilities, including the Har Hamakosh site, with the aim of accurately monitoring any unusual activity, amid fears that Iran will attempt to rehabilitate the infrastructure or transfer materials and facilities away from supervision.
The security establishment and the political level in Israel believe that the liquidation of nuclear scientists from the first and second circles constituted a very important point in weakening Iran’s ability to rebuild its program.
A security source said in this context, “The liquidation of knowledge centers in the nuclear field makes it very difficult for the Iranians, now and in the foreseeable future, to rebuild the infrastructure and make decisions on how to do so. “They can find solutions, but it will be complicated.”
The strikes mentioned by Israeli estimates are not limited to the nuclear program, as the report indicates that Iranian military industries were subjected to significant damage due to strikes by the Israeli army and the American army.
According to estimates in Israel, Iran has returned to production, but on a limited scale and “very far” from what it aspired to before the operation, while the rehabilitation process remains very complex in light of US sanctions.
A security official told the Walla website: “It is not a coincidence that the Iranians have been launching short-range missiles and rocket-propelled grenades in recent months, as their long-range arsenal is subject to restrictions.”
In Israeli security officials’ reading of the scene, Iran and the United States today face what they described as a “war of hours,” while the central question is: “Who will retreat first?”
According to the report, the price of a barrel of oil raises great concern within the White House, especially since parties lost elections in the past due to issues of this kind.
The US administration also fears inflation and an economic crisis that may result from exceptional expenses related to the war and others, coinciding with the approaching midterm elections at the end of November.
On the other hand, Iran is facing increasing difficulty operating under the weight of American economic pressure.
The report indicated that despite the threats of US President Donald Trump, Washington has not yet introduced heavy new sanctions into the equation that could accelerate the economic crisis in various parts of Iran.
Estimates within the Israeli security establishment indicate that Tehran, in an attempt to get out of the internal economic crisis and avoid the development of popular unrest at a speed that is difficult to control, may resort to opening a confrontation against the Gulf states and American interests in the Middle East.
For this reason, and in an attempt to prevent any surprise on the ground, the IDF Chief of Staff directed us to maintain a high level of readiness and prepare for all scenarios.
Between enriched uranium still underground, military industries trying to restore their capabilities, mounting economic pressure on Tehran, and American fears about the cost of war and inflation, the “war of hours” seems open to one question that has not yet been decided: Which side will find itself forced to change the rules of the game first?
