At a time when the war in Ukraine continues, Moscow is moving, according to Western intelligence reports, to employ military movements and possible recruitment measures in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, located between Poland and Lithuania, with the aim of keeping European countries on alert and raising the cost of military and economic readiness on them, in a move that may also reflect on its ability to continue supporting Ukraine.
According to a report published by the Israeli “Mako” website, citing an Emirati website, senior Western sources revealed that Moscow may use the threat of “military movements” and recruitment operations near the European borders, especially in Kaliningrad, as part of a strategy aimed at keeping European countries on alert, which would affect their military and economic resources and capabilities.
The sources who spoke to the site reported that some Russian movements and leaks related to strengthening forces or preparing to carry out recruitment operations in Europe may aim to raise the level of anxiety in European capitals and push their governments to increase spending on readiness and enhance border protection.
The sources added that Moscow is betting that the continued state of alert in Europe will lead to increasing pressure on military resources and capabilities on the continent, and will place governments before a more difficult equation between strengthening their direct defenses, continuing to pump weapons, and providing economic aid to Kiev.
These estimates come against the backdrop of reports, especially in American media, that talked about the possibility of Russia carrying out a large-scale recruitment operation after the Russian elections scheduled for September 20.
Kaliningrad gains special strategic importance because of its location in the heart of NATO’s eastern wing, which makes any Russian military move there the subject of careful European monitoring, especially in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine and increasing fears of tension spreading to other regions.
According to a source familiar with the details, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bet “is gaining importance” as winter approaches, as Moscow is working, according to received estimates, to prolong the war of attrition on the Ukrainian front, in parallel with mounting pressure on Europe, ahead of the midterm elections in the United States, the results of which may shape American support for Ukraine in 2027.
In parallel, the British newspaper “The Telegraph” reported last week that Russia had established at least 10 new bases to launch long-range suicide drones, some of which have the ability to strike areas deep within NATO territory.
According to the investigation, some of these bases are already being used to carry out attacks in Ukraine, while their proximity to the border contributes to enabling Russia to carry out massive air attacks against the Ukrainian air defense systems, which are suffering from depletion.
A NATO official told the newspaper: “We are ready to defend every inch of allied territory,” repeating messages previously issued by the alliance, which includes European and Western countries. He added that the alliance will continue to “strengthen our readiness to deter and defend against any threat, including drones.”
According to the same investigation, at least 59 new launch pads were spotted along the Russian border with Belarus and Ukraine, used to launch drones instead of traditional take-off runways. Some drone centers have also been converted from military bases and civilian airports, while in other areas new launch pads have been established within Russian rural areas.
Thus, the Kaliningrad card does not appear to be just a potential military move, but rather part of a broader bet on keeping Europe under the pressure of alert, so that the cost of permanent preparedness turns into a factor influencing its military and economic decisions, and its ability to continue supporting Kiev.
