Thus, the French team enters the semi-finals after six consecutive victories. He scored 16 goals and conceded two goals. His players created 81 chances and had 50 shots on goal, with a possession rate of 59 percent.
Spain achieved five wins and a draw. She scored 11 goals and conceded only one goal. She kept a clean sheet in five matches, possessed 66 percent of the ball, and had a passing accuracy of 92 percent. The numbers for France and Spain show a clear difference: France wants to arrive quickly, and Spain wants to prevent the competitor from arriving at all.
The irony is that the two teams scored six goals in the playoffs. France beat Sweden 3-0, Paraguay 1-0, and Morocco 2-0. Spain overcame Austria 3-0, Portugal 1-0, and Belgium 2-1. France has not conceded a goal since the start of the qualifying rounds. Spain conceded its only goal of the tournament against Belgium.
Kylian Mbappe enters the match with the best individual numbers. Eight goals and three assists in six matches. He shot 30 times, including 20 shots on goal, even though his expected goals did not exceed 5.07.
But the player who organizes France’s attack is Michael Oliseh. He didn’t score, but he made five goals. His presence between the midfield and defense lines prevents the opponent from monitoring Mbappé and Dembélé individually.
For its part, Spain will need Rodri in front of the two centre-backs, not only as a distributor of the ball, but also to close the space in which Oliseh moves.
Rodri is the foundation of Spanish control. He completed 597 passes in the tournament, more than any other player, including 170 passes in the attacking third, with an accuracy of more than 93 percent. Behind him, Pau Kuparsi completed 521 passes.
As for Spain’s rising star, Lamine Yamal, he turned nineteen one day before the match. His offensive numbers are lower than expected: one goal, without an assist, despite shooting 23 balls, including 10 on goal. But he was Spain’s best player against Belgium. Despite the lack of scoring, his presence on the right forces French full-back Lucas Digne to stay behind, and gives Pedro Porro additional space to advance.
This side may be the most dangerous for France. If Digne is left alone against Yamal and Boro, France will be forced to withdraw Adrien Rabiot or Desiree Doue to the flank. Then Rodri and Dani Olmo get more space in the middle. Therefore, choosing Douai over Bradley Barkola seems to be a decision related to defense as much as attack.
On the other hand, Mark Kokoria will face a different test against Ousmane Dembélé. The French striker scored five goals from only 16 shots, although his expected goals amounted to about 1.5. Dembele is in the best stage in terms of decisiveness, but he will face a full-back who played all of Spain’s minutes in the tournament, and scored two goals. Spain’s problem is not creating opportunities. The problem is ending it. Yamal and Dani Olmo have only scored one goal combined. The solution came from Mikel Oyarzabal, who scored four goals, and from Mikel Merino, who became the most important substitute in the tournament. Merino scored the winning goal against Portugal in the 91st minute, then settled the match against Belgium in the 88th minute, becoming the first substitute to score the winning goal in two different matches in the knockout stages in World Cup history.
Historically, the two teams have met 38 times. Spain won 18, France 13, and they tied seven times. The Spanish scored 71 goals compared to 44 for the French. But their only confrontation in the World Cup ended with France winning 3-1 in 2006. On the other hand, Spain won the last two major confrontations: the Euro 2024 semi-final with a score of 2-1, and the 2025 Nations League semi-final with a score of 5-4.
The course of the match is linked to the first goal. If Spain scores, they will be able to lower the tempo and keep Mbappe off the ball. If France advances, Spain will be forced to raise its full-backs and leave direct spaces in front of the fastest attack in the tournament.
The French advantage exists, but it is limited. France has the most decisive player and the most productive attack. On the other hand, Spain has a more controlled midfield and a defense that only conceded a goal. If the match is opened, France becomes closer. If the tie remains after the 60th minute, the advantage shifts to Spain because of Merino and Pedri and its ability to change the shape of the midfield from the bench.
