Behind the scenes of secret communications simmering behind the regional scenes, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is making an extremely dangerous political and intelligence bet. Trying to turn Saudi Arabia’s military impasse in the face of the escalating Houthi strikes into a decisive pressure card that pushes Riyadh towards signing a full normalization agreement and abandoning its historical conditions related to the Palestinian state.
The Tel Aviv equation: “Money buys solutions” According to an analytical report by Israeli journalist Ben Caspit on the Al-Monitor website and Maariv newspaper, Netanyahu believes that the window of opportunity has opened wide:
- Saudi field impasse: Senior Israeli security sources confirm that the Houthis surprised Riyadh with painful and unexpected strikes. This made the Kingdom’s position fragile and vulnerable to a direct threat that could ignite the entire region.
- The decline of the American umbrella: In light of the lack of direct military intervention from Washington and the inadequacy of regional alliances, Riyadh finds itself searching for decisive alternatives, which has even prompted it to reach out to Beijing.
- Live security presentation: An Israeli intelligence source said clearly: “Netanyahu realizes that the Saudis lack precise operational and intelligence capabilities, but they have enough money to buy solutions to their crises.”
Secret threads from “NEOM” to the German summit These attempts are not the result of the moment, but rather represent an extension of complex secret channels:
- NEOM secret meeting: The meeting that brought together Netanyahu, former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in late 2020 opened a security door that has not been closed, despite the sensitivity of the leaks.
- “Centcom” mediation: The US Central Command is responsible for engineering the coordination rooms. This was evident in the closed military meeting in Germany, which brought together the leadership of the armies of Israel and seven Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia.
- Nature of the proposed support: Estimates rule out Israeli fighters launching direct raids on behalf of Riyadh, but they focus on providing it with an accurate target bank for Houthi sites, real-time reconnaissance information, and experts to raise the efficiency of Saudi defenses.
Will the Saudi position soften? Decision-making circles in Tel Aviv are testing whether the Houthis’ stranglehold on the waterways and the kingdom’s security will push Prince Mohammed bin Salman to soften his position and announce an open meeting or direct understanding with Netanyahu. However, diplomatic circles confirm that this remains, until now, merely “Israeli wishes and scenarios,” in light of Riyadh’s official insistence that the path of normalization is completely closed without a real political horizon and an independent Palestinian state.
