Harry Kane…the most prominent candidate
At the forefront of the race stands Englishman Harry Kane, who has imposed himself as the most prominent candidate thanks to an exceptional season with Bayern Munich and the England national team. Kane scored huge scoring numbers, including 61 goals in 51 matches with Bayern, in addition to six goals with his country in the World Cup, which strengthened his position at the top of the nominations. Several media estimates and bets consider him the most likely candidate to win the award.
Kane has a strong additional card, represented by his home hat-trick with Bayern Munich, in addition to his influential presence with the England national team in the World Cup, which puts him in front of a historic opportunity to become the first English player to win the Ballon d’Or since Michael Owen in 2001. Lamine Yamal… the youngest and most dangerous competitor.
But Kane’s task will not be easy, as standing in front of him is Lamine Yamal, who continues to write his name among the game’s greats despite his young age. The Spanish star played a prominent role with Barcelona and the Spanish national team, and contributed to winning the Spanish League and the Super Cup, before winning the World Cup with Spain.
The strength of Yamal’s profile lies in the combination of titles and individual performance, in addition to his direct influence in major matches. Therefore, his name constantly appears at the forefront of nominations, and many consider him the most prominent competitor to Ken for the award.
Mbappe…numbers versus titles
As for Kylian Mbappe, he enters the race with a file that is difficult to ignore. The French star had a strong scoring season with Real Madrid. He also topped the World Cup’s top scorers and scored 10 goals in the tournament, an achievement that greatly enhances his chances.
But the weak point in Mbappe’s file remains linked to collective achievement, especially after France’s early exit from the World Cup, despite his remarkable individual numbers. Mbappe himself had confirmed that he believes that this year could be appropriate to win the Ballon d’Or, referring to what he achieved during the season and the World Championship. Rodri…the world champion card.
Rodri enters the race from a different gate. The Spanish midfielder, who was previously crowned with the Ballon d’Or in 2024, was one of the most prominent members of the Spanish team that won the World Cup, and thus has one of the strongest collective achievements in the season.
But the competition this time is more complicated for Rodri, especially since Spain’s success may lead to the votes being distributed among more than one Spanish player, at a time when Yamal has a more prominent individual profile in terms of attack.
Dembele…the defending champion is looking for a new surprise
The last Ballon d’Or holder, Ousmane Dembélé, is also on the list, but his task seems more difficult than last year. The French star was one of the most prominent faces of Paris Saint-Germain, but the current competition includes very strong players, especially Kane, Yamal, Mbappe and Rodri.
However, Dembélé’s experience in the award race, coupled with Paris Saint-Germain’s success on the continent, keeps him in the running, albeit not at the top of the current nominations.
Messi.. Can experience change the equation?
Lionel Messi returns to the list of candidates after missing the past two editions, in a new attempt to add a ninth Ballon d’Or to his historical record.
Messi led Argentina to the World Cup final, and he also produced remarkable offensive numbers with Inter Miami, but his move outside Europe makes his task more difficult, especially in light of the strong competition from the stars of the European leagues. However, the presence of his name alone is enough to keep the door open for a new surprise.
Haaland, Vinicius, and Bellingham… names waiting to pounce
Names such as Erling Haaland, who scored 58 goals with Manchester City and Norway, cannot be excluded, along with Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham, Bruno Fernandes, Hveica Kvaratskhelia, Michael Oliseh and Declan Rice.
These people have strong files, but the competition for the first places seems to be related to the extent of the influence of each player in major titles, especially the World Cup and the European Champions League.
The biggest surprise: prominent names outside the race
Perhaps what sparked the most controversy after the announcement of the list was not only the names present, but also those that were absent.
Brazilian Rafinha is at the forefront of surprises, after he finished fifth in the Ballon d’Or race last year and had a good season with Barcelona, before missing the list of thirty. It is believed that his poor performance in the World Cup and the injury that kept him out of a number of matches affected his chances.
Pedri’s absence was also a big surprise, especially since he was a key player in Barcelona, which won the Spanish League, and participated with Spain in its journey to the World Cup title. However, the decline in his role during the world championship, in favor of Fabian Ruiz, may have played a role in his exclusion.
Among the most notable absentees is Portuguese star Cristiano Ronaldo, despite winning the Saudi League with Al-Nasr, in addition to Mohamed Salah, Julian Alvarez, Othman Douye, Bradley Barkola and David Raya, while Karim Benzema and Luka Modric were also absent from the list.
Who has the race advantage?
So far, the picture looks closer to a three-way race between Harry Kane, Lamin Yamal and Kylian Mbappe, with Rodri entering as a candidate capable of turning the equation around, while Messi, Dembele and Haaland remain in the competition.
But the Ballon d’Or is not decided by numbers alone; Voting is based on individual performance, group achievements, and fair play. As the ceremony approaches, the main question will be: Will the votes give preference to the one who collected the numbers, or the one who collected the titles, or the one who had the most influence in the biggest matches of the season?
While Kane appears to be in the lead currently, Yamal’s coronation with Spain, Mbappe’s record numbers, and Rodri’s success with the national team may make the final hours of the race open to more than one scenario.
