What worries Hezbollah most during the ongoing Israeli war on Lebanon is related to the outcome that this battle will reach, especially since the battlefield has not decided the outcome of the confrontation, while there is a certain level of tension that has imposed itself so far.
In the current situation, Hezbollah seems to fear a major thing, which is its inability to return to before last March 2, the date the war between it and Israel began. In fact, this matter is troubling the “party” a lot, while it may not find itself able to bear the results of the current war, whatever they may be. What the 2006 war ended with, in terms of reconstruction, pumping money, and strengthening the “party’s” position, are all things that may not be repeated now, and if some of them happen, it will not be easy.
In fact, Hezbollah finds that the impasse it has entered requires a way out that will save face, at least with its environment, because the confrontation it has entered into cannot end with the continuation of the occupation or even with Israel continuing to launch attacks on Lebanon. Even if Israel withdraws by ground from Lebanon and maintains field movement and targeting operations, this does not constitute a victory at all for “the party,” but rather a return to the pre-March 2 pattern, and thus the current war will have exacerbated the destruction, crisis, and displacement, while there are no clear solutions to the issue of targeting and “preemptive strikes” that Israel is talking about.
What is most troubling to the “party” is its fear of a repeat of the Syrian model in Lebanon, and sources close to it say that “the party will not accept that southern Lebanon becomes a second Golan, and there will be no acceptance of an actual buffer zone imposed by Israel inside the south, which will lead to easy incursions from time to time.”
On the other hand, sources concerned with military affairs tell…“Lebanon 24” Any end to the war will not be achieved if Hezbollah insists on being present at the border again, which means that the previous “problem” associated with that presents itself again.
The sources point out that if the Israeli withdrawal is achieved at any moment, then the party’s fans will return to the front villages, and thus their enthusiasm for confrontation will increase again, especially if they find themselves in the position of the victor. They add: “Victory will not happen if the agreement of November 27, 2024 remains as it is, just as victory will not happen if the sporadic Israeli strikes continue.”
Therefore, the end of the war must not ignore two basic things. The first is that the peaceful and diplomatic path between Lebanon and Israel is what achieves a new equation, while the second is related to Hezbollah making concessions in favor of the state and not in favor of Israel, and the factor that should push it to do so is the misery that its environment and other environments faced because of the war.. The basic question here: Will “the party” take the initiative to this option? It’s doubtful…
