In this context, Dr. Mohamed Fahili, a researcher at the Suleiman Olayan School of Business Administration at the American University of Beirut, said via “Lebanon 24” that the renewed US sanctions aimed at economic and financial restrictions on Iran are not only read as an American measure against Tehran, but rather as a factor that raises the level of risks associated with all of Lebanon in the eyes of the global financial system.
He pointed out, “Here the most dangerous repercussions begin: additional stringency from correspondent banks, expansion of the phenomenon of de-risking, increased pressures related to financial compliance, and increased caution in any financial dealings related to Lebanon.”
He considered that “this matter is extremely sensitive for a country like Lebanon that is still trying to get out of the repercussions of its presence on the Financial Action Task Force’s gray list, and in light of increasing European and international pressure related to combating money laundering and terrorist financing.”
Fahili pointed out that “economic fear is sometimes more dangerous than the sanctions themselves. The Lebanese economy today is so fragile that a mere increase in the level of anxiety may lead to a decline in investments, a contraction in dollar flows, a tightening of remittances, and a decline in economic activity even without an actual war occurring inside Lebanon.”
He warned that “Lebanon will not automatically benefit from any calm between America and Iran if it remains mired in the absence of reforms, the collapse of confidence, institutional paralysis, and the reluctance to address its financial and banking crisis,” considering that “regional stability may open a window of opportunity, but it does not build a state, reform the economy, or restore lost confidence.”
