October 28, 2026
The political betting market “PolyMarket” witnessed sharp fluctuations in its expectations regarding the identity of the next Israeli prime minister, as the fortunes of Gadi Eisenkot declined rapidly in favor of his rival, Benjamin Netanyahu, with the start of the actual results of the elections and the counting of votes, in a bet whose total trading volume exceeded 74 million dollars.
According to a report prepared by journalist Efrat Nomberg Younger on the Israeli “Mako” website, Eisenkot topped market expectations last evening by 61% compared to 23.5% for Netanyahu, before the picture reversed this morning, with Eisenkot’s chances falling to 27% and Netanyahu’s stock rising to 50%. These prices show the value that traders are willing to pay for a $1 contract once the candidate is sworn in, noting that a price of 50% means that the market is evenly split without representing an opinion poll or a political decision.
The market trend has varied over the past few days. Eisenkot’s chances reached 56.3% on Sunday afternoon compared to 28.5% for Netanyahu, before the gap widened when the polls closed to reach 60.9% for the former and 23.5% for the latter, before the scene completely changed this morning. The cumulative trading volume in the market amounted to about $74.2 million, which is the total number of executed transactions and not necessarily the number of bettors or the value of new money, the prices of which were calculated through the midpoint between supply and demand.
The bet focuses exclusively on the identity of who will be sworn in as prime minister after the elections, excluding transitional or interim governments, and setting the date of December 31, 2027 as the maximum result for the result, otherwise it will go in favor of an “other” option. In the same context, traders misjudged the largest party; Yesterday morning, Polymarket granted the Yashar! Under Eisenkot’s leadership, the chance exceeds 70%, while the counting of about 60% of the votes showed the Likud party leading with 28 seats compared to 21 seats for Yashar!
As of 09:20 this morning, with more than 66% of the ballot boxes counted, Netanyahu’s camp won 56 seats compared to 48 seats for Eisenkot’s camp, while the Arab parties won 16 seats. Thus, the two camps are unable to reach the majority required to form the government, which is estimated at 61 seats, amid expectations that coalition negotiations will continue for weeks and the numbers are subject to change as the counting processes continue.
These fluctuations are not entirely surprising; A recent academic study that examined 1.24 million transactions in the Israeli market on “PolyMarket” (which has not yet been subject to peer review) showed that one huge purchase on September 29 was enough to raise Netanyahu’s price from 29.5% to 36% before it returned to its level within two hours. Ultimately, prices only reflect traders’ assessments at a specific moment, with the final outcome still dependent on the outcome of the remaining votes and upcoming political negotiations.
