October 22, 2026
Nader Hegaz – Mtv
Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz chose a very bad time, coinciding with the Lebanese-Israeli military negotiations in Tampa, Florida, to once again threaten to launch a new ground operation, by advancing towards Nabatieh and Litani, with the aim of making them a permanent part of the security zone in southern Lebanon. He also threatened to bomb the southern suburb of Beirut if Hezbollah launched any attack on the northern towns, warning it that it would receive a severe blow if it joined any Iranian attack on Israel.
Katz’s statements do not reflect positive indicators regarding the negotiating path, as talk about experimental areas and their expansion has become futile, while other areas remain threatened by new occupation.
But are Katz’s statements really serious, or do they aim for political exploitation on the eve of the Israeli elections? What does the military reality on the ground say in the south?
The former commander of the Southern Military District, retired Brigadier General Khalil al-Jamil, indicated in an interview with MTV that “the Israeli army is currently taking a defensive position in the south, after withdrawing the offensive brigades that were present there to the rear lines about a month ago, especially the Golani Brigade in the western sector and the 4th Armored Brigade, “Kiryati,” and replacing them with the Bismalakh Brigade, which is a training brigade operating under the command of the 146th Division.
In the central sector, the Egoz unit and the Yahalom unit were withdrawn to the interior, and the 55th Paratroop Brigade was replaced by the 188th Reserve Brigade. As for the 210th Bashan Division, it is stationed in the high eastern sector, and no movements are recorded other than limited incursions, after which the invading Israeli forces return to the positions from which they started. Therefore, all these data indicate that the current situation is defensive.”
Gemayel commented on Katz’s threats to expand the Yellow Line, saying: “If there is any attack or escalation from the Lebanese side towards Israel, I do not rule out that Israel will respond using its superior capabilities on the ground, through advancement,” revealing that “the easiest targets now for the Israelis are Nabatieh and Tyre, especially after seizing the Ali Al-Taher Hills and reaching the outskirts of Nabatieh Al-Fawqa.”
What about the city of Tire?
Al-Jamil answers: “It is possible to advance towards Tyre as well, especially since the Israeli forces are now about seven kilometers away from it, and are stationed at Majdal Zoun Hill, and from there they control Al-Mansouri. It is only separated from Tyre by a number of plain villages about three kilometers away from the sea, namely Al-Haniya, Al-Qalila, Al-Sama’iya, Deir Qanun Al-Ain, and Al-Housh.
Gemayel does not rule out that “in the event of escalation, Israel may move towards these two regions, and not towards Iqlim al-Tuffah, especially since controlling Tire and the capital of Jabal Amel will have a greater impact on the Lebanese state and Hezbollah.”
The government will certainly be affected by any escalation of this kind if it occurs. Over the past months, its president, Nawaf Salam, has been intensifying the movement of the state, its ministries and security agencies in the city of Nabatieh, and has visited it more than once, especially after the fall of Ali Al-Taher, with the aim of establishing the official presence there, reassuring the people, and demonstrating the strength of the state and its ability to be present in the field.
Therefore, the country’s image will be most damaged in the event of an escalation of this kind, while Hezbollah will lose its last military presence in the south.
What about the seriousness of the threat to attack the southern suburbs?
Gemayel says: “If any escalation occurs, there will be no red lines for the Israelis, and they may again empty the southern suburbs and attack it, if Hezbollah joins any new confrontation or carries out any movement towards Israel.”
The Litani River, which extends about 170 kilometers, represents an old Israeli dream dating back to the 1940s, primarily out of the desire to control its waters, in addition to imposing a security reality according to Tel Aviv’s conditions. Israel imposed a similar reality after the 1982 invasion, and its occupation of parts of the south continued until liberation on May 25, 2000.
Will Israel seize the opportunity again to regain its grip on the entire Litani Line?
