The party is moving at a critical timing … What is preparing in the south?
The party is moving at a critical timing … What is preparing in the south?
Does Hezbollah ignite the Lebanese front in light of the Iranian -Israeli escalation?
In the midst of the rapid escalation in the Middle East, and with the escalation of mutual strikes between Israel AndIran،
The conversation returned again about a situation Lebanese Hezbollah Among the recent developments, amid fears of the outbreak of an open confrontation on the Lebanese -Palestinian Front. Does Lebanon go to war?
What are the messages that the party sent in the last critical hours?
A quick Lebanese move to explore the position of Hezbollah
With the early hours of the air attacks that Israel launched on locations inside Iran,
The Lebanese state moved in a way urgent Through official diplomatic channels towards Hezbollah،
In an attempt to explore its military intentions, especially in light of the sensitivity of the internal situation and the fear of Lebanon being dragged into a battle that is unbearable or social.
The response from the party was short, but it is clear: “What is going on is a direct Israeli aggression against Iran, and Tehran is able to respond and act.”
In this response, the party suggests that it will not enter the confrontation directly unless the strikes are expanded to include Lebanese lands.
A commitment to calm … but with caution
Despite regional tension, informed sources say that Hezbollah He is still committed to the trades held, on top of which Event 27/11 And international decision 1701.
Lebanon has conveyed several international messages to the party that the international community prefers stability in the south. On the other hand, there was no actual threat or escalation step that is explained as an intention to violate existing agreements.
This scene does not mean that the southern front is completely quiet.
“Hezbollah” left itself A possible move If Israel decided to expand its military operation towards Lebanon,
Especially if it includes A land invasion Or direct targeting of the infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
Israel is seriously considering on the North Front
According to diplomatic sources, transferred A senior Western ambassador Warning to Lebanese officials,
It is reported that Israel may soon take military steps towards the northern front, with the aim of expanding the circle of pressure on the “axis of resistance”.
These messages come within a framework Psychological warfareBut it is not without field connotations worthy of accurate follow -up.
Fears lies in that Tel Aviv The current moment may be used to weaken Iranian influence in the region through a series of air or even wild attacks, a scenario that cannot be excluded,
Especially in the shadow of an Israeli right -wing government looking for a regional victory at any cost.
Hezbollah and Iran: the game of balance and integration
Currently, it doesn’t seem to be Iran He needs direct military support from Hezbollah. On the contrary, it is estimated that Tehran wants to impose Strategy deterrent equation With Israel without expanding the circle of engagement.
This does not prevent the party from Stay in high readinessOn the other hand, it is preferable not to be involved in a direct confrontation that may drain its capabilities and lure Lebanon into a comprehensive war.
It is noticeable that Israeli strikes against Iran It was very painful, focusing on targeting military infrastructure, scientific research centers, and experts in vital fields.
However, Tehran dealt with an escalation with high craftsmanship, and was able to respond quickly, which restored a kind of balance to the regional scene.
The battle exceeds the nuclear program
The analysis of the strategic circles in Tehran shows that the current battle Not limited to the nuclear fileIt includes an Israeli -American attempt to redraw the balance of power in the region.
The goal is He paralyzed Iranian military powerAnd weakening its “arms” in the region, especially Hezbollah, the popular crowd, and the Houthis.
The Iranian leadership realizes that the result of this confrontation will determine the shape of the region in the coming years. If Tehran is able to Imposing a new deterrent balanceIts allies, especially Hezbollah, will win strategic points.
But if Israel succeeds in carrying out a painful blow, its negative effects will not only be limited to Iran, but may extend to Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.
Does the party return to the surprises box?
Observers notice that Hezbollah He has not yet revealed his papers completelyRather, it leaves the field for maneuvering and surprises when needed. So far, the party is satisfied with sending limited field messages,
The launch of exploratory aircraft or the launch of limited missiles may not violate the red lines, but it keeps “pressure” on the northern front.
Although the volume of Iranian responses to Israeli strikes is greater than expected,
However, Hezbollah is still holding the initiative in the south, and accurately monitors developments to determine the timing of the response if necessary.
The south is in the eye of the storm … but the accounts are accurate
There is no doubt that southern Lebanese stands today on the brink of ignition. But the war decision is not taken yet. Hezbollah, as Iran, It is preferable to play under the roof of the studied deterrenceBut keeping the right to respond in time.
In this critical time, it remains The equation is open On all the possibilities, the most important question remains: Will it be Lebanon is the next square In the battle of drawing features The new Middle East؟
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