The explosion is postponed to August 31

“Libyan Dibit” – Abdullah Qamh

At a time when Hezbollah, through the Shura, was studying the options for dealing with the government, including the resignation option, and in light of the atmosphere that was indicating a date for a new session of the Council of Ministers next Tuesday to complete the discussion of the remaining items from the previous session, information has reached the Republican Palace and the governmental companies stating that the Shiite duo is seriously studying multiple options, including withdrawing from the government. This time, it was not limited to leaving the sessions, but rather towards suspending participation in it, that is, boycott and i’tikaaf.

This trend has sparked a real fear of its consequences, especially in light of the congestion witnessed by the street, and because it makes the government “truncated the charter” in the absence of Shiite representation. The seriousness of the matter increased the exit of the deputy head of the political council in the party, former Minister Mahmoud Qamati, on Saturday night, speaking about studying options on continuing the government.

In front of this scene, the presidency of the Republic was a position to contain the crisis, putting on its list of options to postpone the sessions until a settlement was found. I issued directives to search for exits. The deliberations resulted in a legal formula to grant both the Director General of the Presidency of the Republic, Antoine Shuqair, and the Secretary -General of the Council of Ministers, Judge Mahmoud Makya, “annual leave” (pursuant to job precedents), allowing the suspension of the sessions due to the absence of the authorized party to prepare the agenda and remove the sessions from any escalation, to return and resume late this month with the end of the leave. This date coincides with the expiry of the deadline that the government granted to the army to prepare a study that translates the ideas of “inventory of weapons”, in implementation of the government’s decision at its session held last Tuesday, provided that the study will be presented at the end of the month.

With this step, the presidency benefited from several aspects: keeping the discussion open with the Shiite duo to find exits, and suspending the sessions to block the road on any clash that may lead to the withdrawal of the two ministers of the two session Tuesday. As for the duo, he gave himself a chance to enhance his presence and raise the mobilization of his environment.

On the other hand, the last atmosphere broadcast by the “Shiite duo” was considered a deliberate. The boycott, according to the theory of “i’tikaaf” and “boycott”, is a constitutional right for the minister (although the experience during the Siniora government in 2007 was not encouraging as the sessions continued despite the boycott of the Shiite ministers). In the position of the duo holding the charter paper, the suspension of participation, not the resignation, puts Prime Minister Nawaf Salam- who is alert that he is ready to appoint substitutes for any minister who resigns- in a critical angle: no ministers resigned to appoint substitutes for them, and there is no possibility to dismiss the ministers of “boycott”. He also becomes in the face of the President of the Republic, Joseph Aoun, who does not support the idea of escalation, and does not seek to open a political or a charter with a basic component who has 27 deputies in the House of Representatives, as evidence that in the aftermath of last Thursday session, he tried to send explanations about the reasons that led him not to raise the session despite the withdrawal of the Shiite component ministers.

Thus the decision of the Presidency of the Republic was based on “containment, not a clash”, while broadcasting a clear atmosphere by refusing to leave any government minister.

Despite the continued communications, especially with Ain al -Tina, the Republican Palace monitored a change in the way the duo dealt with it after the last session. So he sent reassurance messages in an attempt to understand the Shiite position. This policy appeared in practice, as the army did not interfere in the face of motorcycle movements that roamed the streets of the southern suburbs, the old Sidon road, and the new and old ways leading to Beirut AirportAlthough the road was closed for a short period, and despite a decision to prevent the closure of this road. The army, in line with the approach of containment, was satisfied with the closure of some entrances to the suburb in the evening to prevent the marches from leaving other areas that may cause friction, especially in the Christian neighborhoods, which reflected the decision to keep the movements within the area of the suburb.

This approach was inferred as the seizure of the marches that have no repression, in the coordination of “instant” between the army leadership and the leaders of “Hezbollah” and “Amal Movement”, which confirmed that they are not standing behind these moves but they do not oppose them, leaving the decision for the young men while ensuring that peace remains. For the duo, these marches were an opportunity to show the size of support in its environment. Reports showed the participation of thousands of motorcycles, the vast majority of them are young.

Accordingly, the escalation and the government explosion have been postponed to August 31, where the deadline for the assumed session of the Council of Ministers to listen to the “study of the army” on the inventory of weapons, and the memory of the absence of Imam Sayyid Musa al -Sadr, where it will be a word for the Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, is supposed to be normal in light of what we are witnessing, and you will draw the ceiling of dealing with the “concept of disarmament”.

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