Historical settlement … or an open storm on all possibilities

Antoine Al -Owait

Between the hammer of the Israeli escalation and the anvil of the American conditions, Lebanon stands in front of a historic moment that cannot be heard. It is a cold and decisive equation: either the major settlement … or collapse in the face of the storm.
It is on the threshold of an extremely accurate stage, and in the heart of a crossroads in which the options are drawn with the limit of the knife. They are narrow options, yes, but it is clear of features, it does not accommodate confusion or delusion.

In this great joint, the escalating military pressure intersects with major political accounts, in a scene that brings back to the memory of what happened with Iran, when the administration of Trump By negotiating, while Israel was beating unabated … and so did Washington. The stick before the carrot, and the fire before speaking.
Today, the same plan is reproduced in Lebanon, but with direct tools, and with a more traveled scenario. Constant Israeli raids, concentrated assassinations, accompanied by an American initiative that enveloped itself in the language of advice, and moves with the logic of “correction of the path” and “controlling the ends”.

It is a settlement that is formulated under the glow of fire, amid a force that coincides with an accurate engineering of a new political equation.
At the heart of this scene, the American presidential delegate, Tom Barack, in Beirut as the owner of a court paper, resolved a clear equation based on the inventory of weapons in exchange for a cease -fire, an Israeli withdrawal, a final demarcation, a release of prisoners … and in return, a package of international projects.
The offer is not limited to the security part, but rather transcends it to the strategic dimension to include a bright future for Lebanon economically and diplomatically. International aid and reconstruction projects in the palm of this option, all of which are conditional on this critical file. As for the political price, it is “decisive positioning”. Lebanon chooses its location, and determines its regional options without confusion, in exchange for reintegration into the Arab and international map, after years remained prisoner of isolation and marginalization.
However, when … is not this clear and clear Lebanese national interest?!

Many may agree on this, but access is not imminent, and the road is still thorny and not paved.
In this context, Tom Barack resolved on the Lebanese scene, carrying an incomparable test paper, in a very accurate and dangerous task. He came to receive the official response to the American initiative, after weeks of Lebanese internal consultations governed by red lines. He sat, spoke and interviewed, and received a Lebanese answer, which came balanced to a tight and detailed international offer.
Barack, who knows exactly what he wants, expressed “formal satisfaction”, while in the depth he informed the most important message. The opportunity will not remain available for a long time, and “unlawful weapon” is no longer acceptable, neither local or international, and today it is frankly included as an obstacle to any rescue. He said it explicitly: “We want Lebanon to deal with Hezbollah, not we. This is your problem, and you have to solve it.”

About the reality of the matter, the Lebanese internal scene seemed clearly divided. The official response was characterized by balance and discipline, in harmony with the discourse of the division and the ministerial statement, while keen to preserve the communication channels open, and avoid provoking any party. On the other hand, the position of Hezbollah came as a militant: there is no discussion in the weapon as long as the occupation exists and the attacks are continuing. Rather, the rejectionist speech went further than that, as a kind of “political prohibition” was imposed on any public research in the file of arms, while emphasizing the priority of Israeli withdrawal as a pre -condition, and then returning to an internal dialogue on a national defensive strategy.
Barack, an expert in reading political maps, launched an explicit warning in a strict tone like someone who reads the final statement of the possible consequences: “The guarantee of the lack of war, which resembles those who walk on the water.”
It is noteworthy that Barack did not provide any clear and final guarantees, not security, political, or even economic, at least publicly at this stage, but rather transferred the ball of fire to the Lebanese state stadium. The guarantees will apparently be. He said it with the coldness of the confident: “If you want to change, you are the one who must start it.” Then follow it with a warning that “the region moves quickly, and whoever does not keep pace is excluded. Everyone is tired and tired of everything that happened in the last years, and we now have a new engineering, and we must adhere to it now. It will lose a lot if it fails to change. ”

In other words, the lack of access to a comprehensive and rapid settlement will leave Lebanon unable to rebuild its state, losing every immunity in front of the outbreaks of clinical death viruses, and exposed to an Israeli escalation that has no controls, which may graduate from limited strikes into large -scale confrontations, and perhaps. They are messages that do not accept interpretation.
In the depth, this is not only a “American initiative”. It is the declaration of entry into the era of new balances in the Middle East, and its title: Whoever does not change. The stage has exceeded the mere mediation, and we have a separate moment. Either Lebanon takes the opportunity, or drifted to the explosion. They are transformations that will not wait for our country, and will not keep it a place if it continues to drown with its dodges and divisions.
Barack quietly left who knows exactly what he does. Show formal flexibility, hidden from her strict beams. And with the patience and narration of the professional, and the tone of those who control the rhythm with an accurate balance, he ran his visit to Lebanon. He received the Lebanese response, and left without noise, leaving the door as a possible return after two weeks or more … but he knows, and realizes, that he handed over Lebanon to a date that does not retreat: either the historical settlement … or the open storm on all possibilities.

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