Foreign Policy report: Will America intervene militarily in Lebanon?

The American magazine “Foreign Policy” published a new report in which it talked about the issue of disarmament of “Hezbollah” in Lebanon, noting that Washington has one opportunity to help in this matter.

The report translated by “Lebanon 24” says that “Lebanon will soon submit its plan to persuade Hizbullah to abandon its weapon after 40 years of preserving it,” noting that “the party refuses to hand over its arsenal, threatening to confront the government if necessary.”
He continued: “There is no doubt that the disarmament of Hizbullah will represent a great victory for both American and Lebanese interests, and the challenge is to achieve this goal without dumping the country in the cycle of violence. This means that the United States has a decisive opportunity, albeit transnational, to support the Lebanese government’s plan to disarm Hutza through effective diplomacy, security policy and material support.”
He continued: “Effective American support includes an increase in military aid to strengthen the army, provide immediate intelligence information about Hizbullah and its weapons stores, and the use of diplomatic influence to ensure that regional actors do not undermine the efforts Hezbollah’s favoritism.
He added: “On the fifth of last August, the Lebanese Cabinet took an unprecedented step, as he asked the Lebanese army to develop a plan to disarm Hizbullah by the end of the year. This decision is in itself a very important decision, and the Lebanese army operations have already begun to dismantle the Hizbullah weapons depot A possible possibility that the Lebanese army must prepare for. ”
He continued: “For decades, the Lebanese government officially supported the right of Hezbollah to armament because of the latter’s willingness to use violence against the Lebanese people. Now that any fighter from Hizbullah carries a weapon that will find itself by January, from a fighter. Working as one unit with the Lebanese popular army. Also, the Lebanese government and the Lebanese army are likely to rely on Hizbullah, due to its weakness, this will be the best scenario, but the weak and besieged parties can also respond.
He continued: “For reference, at least a quarter of the army members of the Shiite Muslims, and it seems that these individuals have maintained their loyalty to him to a large extent despite the difficulties they faced as a result of a war with Israel launched by Hizbul. This challenge, some analysts and politicians have offered the possibility of Hizbullah fighters in the armed forces as part of the disarmament plan. While this may seem an ideal solution for Hizbullah and the army alike, but the fact is that the positions and beliefs of the former fighters will be very difficult, especially in the context of their forced integration in the Lebanese army. And those who are ideological in the force responsible for their defeat are at best.
He continued: “The sectarian challenge is not limited to the armed forces. Hezbollah still has a wide popularity between a wide segment of the Lebanese, most of them Shiites. For this, it is difficult to predict their reaction if the party that protects them and enabled them for decades a target for the Lebanese state.”
He added: “Hezbollah has a history of spreading its civilian followers in the protests and campaigns of civil disobedience. With more than just political discussions at stake, Hizbullah may resort to more extreme measures – or its followers may do automatically, which constitutes a dilemma for the Lebanese army and the government alike, and neither of them can order or implement a comprehensive campaign against civilians from a Lebanese sect. One.
He continued: “The Lebanese army has received American and international training in fighting paramilitary groups, but it often fought the extremist groups that Hizbullah exceeded in size and extremism. In practice, the current training and experience of the army are appropriate, but they are not sufficient.”
He continued: “Therefore, the United States should adhere completely to training, armament and intense financing for the Lebanese army. Also, this should be associated with an in -depth intelligence exchange. It is understood that some American caution is here due to the date of coordination of the Lebanese army with Hizbullah, but this is unfounded. A decade ago, and in the context of the clear military domination of Hezbollah, the Lebanese army was already in accordance with the party’s forces. But many have changed since then, especially in light of the current weakness of Hezbollah. ”
He added: “At the same time, Washington should address the ongoing Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty and occupy Lebanese territory, which feed Hizbullah’s speech and the Lebanese state appears as if it is not important. The calls of the American delegate Thomas Barak to Israel to calm the situation in Lebanon are extremely important, and it should be supported with real pressure. While there is not much that the United States can do to the direct impact on the positions of The Shiites, the restriction of Israel will help reduce the impression that the Lebanese state is unable or unwilling to protect the Shiite community from the Israeli Adwan.
He continued: “In the same way, Lebanon strongly needs economic aid that facilitates peace and reintegration by helping Shiite and non -Shiite citizens. Hizbullah is currently providing it with its citizens. Also, the United States should work with its international partners to liberate the resources of the International Monetary Fund and facilitate the restructuring of the debt, while ensuring that economic benefits reach all Lebanese sects instead of falling into the hands of traditional elites.
He said: “It is unlikely that the current US administration will intervene militarily in a confrontation between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah, and such a measure would undermine the government’s claim that it is fighting for Lebanese sovereignty. This means that mobilizing economic, diplomatic and military support is effective since the beginning of any effort to disarm Hizbullah Brilliant. This result may be worse than if Lebanon has never sought to remove its weapon.