Decreased weeks … Can Lebanon avoid escalation?

In the current Lebanese scene, Hizbullah deals with developments on the basis that the Israeli escalation is not just a distant possibility, but rather a weighted reality in the coming weeks. This estimate has become part of his daily accounts, so that it is reflected in his speeches, field options, and even in his unannounced messages.
However, the nature of this possible escalation remains foggy, so no one knows if it will take the form of intense air strikes that affect the military infrastructure and border villages, or a concentrated campaign on the southern suburb after warnings and evacuation, or even a limited land adventure in the Bekaa or South Litani, which is a scenario that is still proposed despite its high cost on both sides. September without a military explosion, it may relate to relatively reduce the possibilities of war in the short term, and pay the merit until after the winter. This reading is based on several factors, the most prominent of which is the accelerating return of the residents of the settlements in northern Palestine. Parallel, Hizbul: Hezbollah shows a remarkable caution in dealing with the Lebanese interior. On the one hand, he is taking seriously with military threats and signs, so he arranges the position of his forces and intensifies his readiness on the fronts, and on the other hand, he avoids engaging in any internal confrontation that may drain him politically and popularly. The party realizes that any field test at home – whether it is security or politically – will put it in a critical position in a moment when it needs to be stabilized, especially since it is immersed in the process of restoration after the last war. This balance between military readiness and internal inheritance reveals an accurate equation that the party tries to preserve: a serious confrontation abroad while avoiding drawing into internal drain battles. He thus seeks to pass the current stage with the least possible losses, pending the clarification of the regional scene and the crystallization of the final decision in Tel Aviv regarding the form of the next confrontation and its timing. In short, the coming weeks appear governed by the tense waiting equation: a possible escalation that the party deals with as a reality, in exchange for Israeli accounts that may lead to postponement. As for Lebanon, renewed, it finds itself on the line of contact between regional entitlements and the requirements of internal stability, in a highly sensitive equation, its primary title, “postponing the explosion, not canceling it.”