Conflicts and low oil production threatening economic growth!

The World Bank raised its forecast for the 2025 economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as Afghanistan and Pakistan, while it reduced its forecast for 2026, noting that these amendments reflect the impact of regional conflicts and low oil production in Iran and Libya.

The bank, which is based in Washington, explained that the average GDP growth in this region will reach 2.8% during the current year, compared to its previous expectations in April at 2.6%. This improvement is mainly due to the recovery of economic activity in the Gulf countries as a result of the fastest cancellation of the expected oils of oil production, in addition to the growth of the non -oil sector, according to Reuters.

Expectations also witnessed an improvement in oil importing countries, driven by increased consumption and private investment, in addition to recovering the agricultural and tourism sectors. On the other hand, it is expected that the oil exporting countries will face a remarkable slowdown as a result of the ongoing disturbances and production discounts.

Regarding the Iranian economy, the bank expected a 1.7% shrinkage this year, followed by a larger contraction of 2.8% in 2026, compared to previous expectations that suggested the growth of the economy by 0.7% next year. The bank pointed out that this decline reflects the decrease in oil exports and non -oil activity in light of the tightening of sanctions, including the re -imposition of United Nations sanctions and turmoil that followed the conflict in June.

These restrictions came after air attacks carried out by Israel and the United States on Iranian nuclear sites, in addition to the United Nations to impose an arms embargo and other sanctions on Iran because of its nuclear program.

The report emphasized that the repercussions of conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, the West Bank, Gaza and Afghanistan affected the entire region, causing humanitarian crises, collective displacement and economic contraction. He also pointed out that the neighboring countries also suffer from indirect effects that include economic turmoil, refugee flows, and the exacerbation of a state of insecurity. (Arabic)