Between the Berri initiative and the army plan … the possible scenarios of the government session

Political circles in Lebanon are awaiting the cabinet session scheduled for next Friday, which was placed on its agenda the army’s exclusive plan in the hands of the state, a session that many describe as the joint, especially as it comes in light of a sharp political division, and a clash between increasing international pressure and fierce internal resistance, while communications intensify in the scenes in search of a way out that avoids the country with a political explosion that may overthrow the government Or put it in a direct confrontation with its internal environment.

Between the expected army plan and the initiative of the Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, it seems that Lebanon is moving towards a detailed test that will not be easily resolved, especially since this initiative according to the available data is based on the separation of the goals of the American paper, that is, the exclusive weapon in the hands of the state, and between its executive mechanisms and its time time, meaning that Berri provides a cover for the government that allows it to say that it has not retracted its decisions, but at the same time it avoids it. Hizbulza slide into an open confrontation.
The initiative states that all ministers participate in the Friday session, and that the army display its plan in detail, with time, logistical, technical and financial needs. But the government, according to the proposed form, is satisfied with “taking knowledge” without issuing a decision to assign or define leisurely. Here Lebanon has adopted the major goals, without committing itself to the mechanisms that may lead to an internal bombing. Can this be the director, and what about other possible scenarios?!
The army between readiness and political obstruction
The knowledgeable says that the army plan that was completed weeks ago based on a government assignment, was actually implemented. It includes time stages that start from South Litani to the rest of the Lebanese territories, and assume cooperation with Hizbullah to secure the smooth application. But it remains, in the end, mortgaging the political decision. The leadership of the military establishment realizes that any implementation that does not have a political cover will be subjected to accusation of bias or direct contact with the party, which you do not want in any way.
According to the information, the army will present on Friday the details of its plan and its obstacles, starting from the lack of equipment and many, to the continued presence of the Israeli forces in Lebanese territory, which may lead to a direct collision that exceeds its capabilities. Likewise, there is no intention to lead to entering a confrontation with Hizbullah by force. Therefore, the plan is likely to remain within the framework of “suspended endowment”, pending the settlement of political and regional dilemmas.
On the other hand, those who know the literature of Hizbullah says that the implementation of the army’s plan requires a triple commitment from Lebanon, Syria and Israel, and it is not yet available. Therefore, any attempt to apply by force will fail or lead to an internal explosion. But the dilemma for the party is dual: on the one hand, he does not want to appear as if it is disrupting government decisions, and on the other hand, he will not accept any plan that withdraws his weapon under the title “exclusive state”. Therefore, he is betting that Berri’s initiative will secure a way out for him and postpones his entitlement.
The scenarios presented to the Friday session
In general, it is not hidden from anyone that the file is no longer an internal internal, as the Americans and the French are keeping pace with developments closely, amid the return of the return of the American envoy Morgan Ortagus to Beirut within days, and an upcoming visit to the French delegate Jean -Yves Laudrian, at a time when the political scenes reveal clear international pressure, based on the fact that Lebanon cannot announce its commitment to the principle of the principle Exclusive weapon without a clear executive plan.
But the dilemma remains Israeli as well. The Talib of Aib has not provided any commitment to withdrawing from the lands or a hill or to stop the attacks, which makes any Lebanese step incomplete or failed to fail, especially since the Americans are unable so far to provide any guarantees for the ceasefire. Therefore, Lebanese officials link any actual implementation of the suspension of attacks and the withdrawal of Israel, a condition that may seem to be incapacitated at the present time, but it is used to justify the Truth.
In front of this image, more than one scenario for the Friday session can be drawn, the first of which is that a land settlement be taken, so to speak, so that the plan is presented by the army, and the government takes knowledge of it without any executive commitment, in exchange for another scenario that some ministers insist on assigning the army to start working in calligraphy, which may lead to the withdrawal of the “duo” ministers, and open to a deep governmental and political crisis. The middle option, which is to postpone the plan, remains to a later session, but also go to a vote if the consensus is not possible, with the repercussions it holds on the unity of the government.
Thus, the Friday session appears to be a real crossroads somewhere, as it will determine whether Lebanon is able to produce an internal settlement that keeps the weapon as a clause of interim debate, or if the division will impose a political and possibly government confrontation. Some say that Berri’s initiative may succeed in saving the moment, but it does not cancel the essence of the crisis: that is, how to reconcile international demands with the sensitivities of the interior, which puts Lebanon again in front of my existential entitlement, so does it exceed it?!