An upcoming letter to Qasim: Post -year messages to the assassination of Mr. Nasrallah

With the approaching the first anniversary of the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on September 27, political and media circles are awaiting an important speech for the Secretary -General Sheikh Naim Qassem, in which he is expected to draw the features of the next stage of the party, at home as in the region.
Initial data indicates that Sheikh Qasim will not adopt a truce tone, but will direct a mobilized and escalatory discourse, focusing on the following points: Emphasizing that the party rearranged its internal ranks and regained its military capabilities despite the losses that afflicted it. The reassurance of its fans that the party has regained the initiative, and that the compromise is still the only guarantee to protect Lebanon in the face of Israeli threats. The emphasis that the ceasefire commitment does not mean the party’s abandonment of the option of confrontation, and that the responsibility in deterring Israeli attacks falls on the Lebanese government. Any prior discussion in the weapon file, before the completion of the sovereign tasks that the party considers a requirement, is the liberation of the land, the restoration of the prisoners, the endowment of the Adwan, and the start of the reconstruction process. It is expected that Sheikh Qasim’s speech will carry messages to the inside, where he will reaffirm that the bargaining and its weapon are legitimacy and legitimacy to protect Lebanon, but this proposition is expected to increase the severity of the political division, as it sees extensive Lebanese forces that the weapon is continuing Outside of the state institutions is the main factor in the state paralysis and its collapse and that the continuation of this path puts the whole country in an open confrontation with the outside, in light of an internal inability to find political and economic solutions, and in this sense, any invitation to a national defensive strategy seems closer to a political paper that the party uses to protect its position, instead of being a collector project to unify the Lebanese about a common vision of security and sovereignty. Complex. Washington and Tel Aviv appeared in a moment that agrees to a new strategy regarding Hezbollah, not limited to the demand for disarmament, but is heading towards being trapped politically and financially and exhausted its social and economic institutions that constitute the pillar of its popular environment. This qualitative transformation makes the party in a direct confrontation with an existential challenge, as it realizes that any decline in the file of weapons or the disintegration of its internal structure may mean its end as a military military force in Lebanon and the region. Therefore, Qasim’s speech is expected to be in response to this strategy, by insisting that the compromise remains and that attempts to suffocate will not push him to retreat. Circle close to the “Shiite duo” assert that the endeavors made by the President of the Republic, General Joseph Aoun, to reduce the gap of the dispute by offering a formula that controls the discussion in a comprehensive national framework, which has not yet succeeded in overcoming the essential obstacle, as it is still existing, as it is still existing Especially between Hizb, Hezbollah and the Prime Minister who stands at a completely different approach. These circles point out that the September 5 session showed the ability to overcome some formal obstacles and produce a limited positive impression, but it did not touch the essence of the problem -related to the exclusive weapon and the role of the state in this file, which makes the real danger inherent in the continuation of the content at the content level. If the relationship between President Nabih Berri and President Aoun seem solid and translates with concrete understandings, then the prime minister is still outside it, which doubles the complexity of the scene and makes any comprehensive settlement more difficult in the foreseeable term.