Is Lebanon heading to a relative calm?

Despite the charged atmosphere that Lebanon has been experiencing since recent weeks, behind this apparent escalation, serious attempts to reduce tension and go towards a political -security settlement that keeps the country away from the scenarios of open confrontation.
The equation is not confined to fiery data or sporadic political and media clashes, but there is parallel efforts, some of which are announced and others are taking place in the scenes, aimed at establishing a minimum level of stability and preventing slipping into a comprehensive clash. Informed sources say that Washington shows at this stage a clear concern to meet the positive step provided by the Lebanese authority, by exerting pressure on pressure on Israel to push it to decline in the field, especially in the south, through limited withdrawals or reduce tension. This American approach, according to the sources, does not reflect a desire to blow up the situation or go towards a direct confrontation between the army and “Hizbullah”, but on the contrary, there is an understanding of the risks of any broad security slipping that may open the region to unaccounted possibilities, but the scene is not without complications. The possibility of Israel to present a new blow to the party is still in place, especially in light of Israeli internal accounts linked to the government and the army, but this does not mean that the settlement option has fallen from the accounts. On the contrary, the settlement appears to be the actual goal of many parties, whether for international considerations that seek to cool tension in the region, or for internal Lebanese considerations that realize that there is no interest in being drawn into an all -out war. In this context, the data indicate that there are two main events that deserve accurate monitoring in the next stage, the first relates to the Israeli army’s involvement in Gaza, where any escalation there will be reflected directly on the front Lebanese. As for the second event, it relates to the development of events in the Syrian interior, as any field changes there may redraw a portion of the regional powers and directly affect the Lebanese scene. And between these two parallel lines, Lebanon is moving in a gray area, awaiting what will lead to American pressure on Israel, and how the Gaza and Syria arenas will develop. These combined developments will determine whether Lebanon is coming to a relative calm that opens the door for the settlement, or on a new round of escalation that may carry unexpected surprises.