In the past few days, and after the visit of the American delegate Tom Barak to Lebanon, remarkable indicators have emerged on the change of the American dialect in approaching the Lebanese file. The statements and situations issued, carried a different tone from those that prevailed in the past months, which was conducted with reports in the Israeli media that for the first time about the possibility of searching for a long -term ceasefire with Lebanon through American efforts.
This transformation did not come from a vacuum, but rather came in the wake of the visit of the Secretary of the Supreme Council of Iranian National Security Ali Larijani to Beirut and Baghdad, a visit that carried wider dimensions than just protocol meetings. According to the leaked behind the scenes of the visit, Larijani put clear red lines that do not belong to the Lebanese authority, but rather extend it to the regional and international framework. The messages that he conveyed carried a strategic nature, re -recall the extent of Iran’s presence in the files of the region, and stressed that Tehran, despite the escalating pressure, still has papers affecting the course of events. This point in particular made the observers read in the visit an indication of a more studied reinstitation than a passing diplomatic step. For its part, Iran and with it the remaining components of the “axis” realize that there is a tangible decline in its regional positions as a result of international and regional changes. However, Tehran is keen to emphasize that this decline does not mean full defeat, and it cannot be considered the end of its role. On the contrary, there is a firm conviction within the corridors of the Iranian decision that the battle has not ended yet, and that preparing for a major confrontation remains an existing option if it is necessary to restore balance to the region. These messages do not seem far from the course of the discussions in Washington. The latter, despite its public strictness in several files, may be concerned with opening broader understanding channels with Tehran, based on a clear barter: ensuring that the Shiite axis does not slip towards steps confusing regional balances, in exchange for stopping attempts to completely exclude it from the equations of influence. This scenario, if the indicators are correct, means that talking about a long -term settlement between Washington and Tehran is no longer like theoretical estimates, but rather touches the level of serious research. The changes in the American and Israeli speeches reflect an increasing awareness that any future settlement cannot exceed Tehran and cannot be built to weaken it completely. The next stage may bear the signs of new understandings, but at the same time remain open to the possibility of escalation if the endeavors stumbled. This makes Lebanon, once again, is an advanced arena for the interactions that exceed its borders towards the entire regional scene.

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