If the ceasefire succeeds in reducing the level of military operations, Lebanon will find itself facing a crisis no less dangerous than the war itself: a crisis of basic services. The recent humanitarian reports reviewed by “Lebanon 24” do not only talk about displaced people and destroyed homes, but also about exhausted infrastructure, damaged water stations, health centers under severe pressure, and municipalities that alone are no longer able to manage this scale of needs.
The problem is that the ceasefire does not automatically restore water to homes, does not open closed hospitals, and does not relieve overcrowding in shelter centers in one day. Therefore, the post-military calm period may be more difficult than expected, because people will move from asking, “Will the bombing stop?” To another, more everyday question: Is there water? Is there a doctor? Is the health center working? Can municipalities clean roads and provide the minimum services?
The greatest pressure will appear in areas that have received displaced people for a long time, and in southern villages that may witness a gradual return of residents. These areas need at the same time to secure residents, serve the displaced, and support the returnees. This means that demand for water, health care and hygiene will rise rapidly, while local capacities remain limited.
In the water issue, the risk is not only related to the interruption of nutrition, but also to water quality. The failure of stations, damage to networks, or lack of maintenance may open the door to water pollution, especially in crowded areas or shelter centers. With summer and consumption rising, the problem may turn into a health crisis if not treated quickly. As for the health sector, it is facing double pressure. On the one hand, there are injuries and chronic and psychological conditions left by the war. On the other hand, there are displaced people who need medicines, primary care, vaccines, and services for mothers and children. All of this comes on top of a health system that was already exhausted before the escalation, and suffers from a lack of funding, staff, and operational capacity.
The problem does not only lie in major hospitals, but also in primary care centers. These centers will be the first line of defense after the ceasefire, because they are the closest to the people and the least expensive. But if they are not supported by medicines, supplies, and mobile medical teams, the citizen will find himself faced with two options: wait or go to a hospital that he cannot afford.
In parallel, municipalities will also be at the heart of the test. It is the place people will go to with the first problem. But most municipalities do not have the funding, equipment, or sufficient number of workers. Therefore, leaving this file to the municipalities alone practically means transferring the crisis from the state level to a weak local level. Here the question becomes fundamental: Are the government and relief teams preparing for a post-ceasefire services plan, or will the work remain a reaction to crises?
The danger is that some people think that the end of the bombing means the end of the crisis. The reality is different. The war leaves behind a long period of pressure on services, and the lack of water and health care may become the title of the next stage, especially if the return begins before the minimum infrastructure is rehabilitated.
