At a time when the repercussions of the recent confrontation between Iran on the one hand and Israel and the United States on the other hand are still casting a shadow over the region, Israeli reports speak of broad American moves to reformulate the security system in the Middle East, including a direct military dialogue with Iran, and plans to study the transfer of American assets and bases to Israel, in addition to a pivotal role for Lebanon in the new security arrangements.
According to a report by journalist Shai Levy published by the Israeli “Mako” website, recent weeks have witnessed a series of developments that the Americans consider indicators of a profound transformation in the regional security structure, led by the US Central Command (CENTCOM).
The report indicated that the Bahraini capital, Manama, hosted a military conference, which it described as historic, under the auspices of the US Central Command, in conjunction with the opening of secret channels of communication, and putting forward what it described as “revolutionary” ideas, including transforming Israeli military bases into focal points for US forces.
According to the report, the Centcom leadership is at the same time working to redraw the defense lines facing Iran, but it is also seeking to prevent the outbreak of a new war or keep it away as much as possible.
He added that the Commander of US Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, led this week a regional security dialogue in which military officials from Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Yemen participated.
The report pointed out that the most prominent event was the participation of senior military representatives from Syria and Lebanon for the first time, while Israel was not invited to participate in these security discussions led by the United States.
He explained that the discussions focused on the tense security environment in the region, and opportunities to expand military cooperation, especially strengthening the multi-layered regional air defense system, while ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was at the core of the discussions.
According to the report, discussions and statements showed that the United States’ interest is more focused on the security of the Strait of Hormuz than on the Iranian nuclear file, the missile program, or militia activity.
The report quoted Admiral Cooper as saying: “We continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with our partners in the region,” referring to the continued expansion of regional alliances despite the existing tension.
In parallel, the report revealed that the Qatari capital, Doha, witnessed another development, after US Vice President J.D. Vance announced Iran’s agreement to hold direct talks between representatives of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and officials in the US Central Command.
The report indicated that this direct military channel aims to reduce friction and address crises directly, away from traditional mediation channels that relied on the Foreign Ministries or the US Central Intelligence Agency.
He added that this step raised widespread astonishment, given that the two sides were, until recently, exchanging military strikes, and that some Iranian officials participating in these contacts were targets of assassination attempts.
The report quoted American security officials as saying that the need for this channel emerged after the recent confrontation, when the United States targeted sites inside Iran, and Tehran responded by launching missiles and drones towards American bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.
In a related context, the report revealed that Washington is considering a new strategic plan to transfer some of its military assets to bases inside Israel, against the backdrop of increasing risks facing American bases in the Gulf states, which are geographically close to Iran and some of which have been subjected to Iranian attacks.
The report explained that the former commander of the US Central Command, General Frank McKenzie, revealed that Centcom had previously presented to the administration of former US President Joe Biden what he called the “Western backup plan,” but it was not approved due to bureaucratic objections within the US Department of Defense.
According to the report, McKenzie believes that Israel represents the most appropriate destination for the deployment of American forces, given the limited restrictions imposed on the movement of American forces and aircraft compared to the Gulf states, in addition to its possession of a multi-layered air defense system that provides greater protection for bases and forces.
The report indicated that during the recent confrontations, Iranian missiles hit American aircraft, radars, and systems inside Gulf bases, and a number of American soldiers were killed and injured there, while Israel did not witness similar incidents, despite hosting refueling planes, transport planes, and American systems, in addition to the deployment of American forces during the war with Iran.
He added that the United States already has a military infrastructure inside Israel, including previously established systems and warehouses, and American forces also used the Uvda and Ramon bases and Ben Gurion Airport during the recent war.
According to the report, McKenzie proposes to transform the American presence at the Ovda base into a permanent presence, and to use Ben Gurion Airport as a permanent center for refueling aircraft, within a series of bases that also extend to Jordan, Egypt, and the Sultanate of Oman.
On the Lebanese side, the report indicated that Israel and Lebanon are currently implementing a new framework agreement to end the war, while also seeking to dismantle Hezbollah.
He added that Admiral Brad Cooper visited Beirut days before the Bahrain conference, where he met with the President of the Republic and the Commander of the Lebanese Army, and discussed with them, according to official statements, the transfer of security responsibility in southern Lebanon to the Lebanese Army.
However, the report indicated that there is skepticism within the Israeli military establishment about the Lebanese army’s ability to implement the terms of the agreement and confront Hezbollah.
He added that Israel informed the American side that the Lebanese army’s enthusiasm for confronting Hezbollah members had declined, considering that this was due, among other reasons, to the fact that a large percentage of the Lebanese army members belonged to the Shiite sect, and that some of them had relatives within Hezbollah.
The report quoted informed sources as saying: “The withdrawal will be a test of the Lebanese army’s ability to impose the sovereignty of the Lebanese state.”
The report concluded by noting that recent developments suggest that the Middle East is entering a new security phase, in which some steps intersect with Israeli interests, while other steps conflict with them, indicating that the coming months, especially the period extending until mid-August with the end of the US-Iranian negotiations, will be decisive in determining whether these arrangements will establish long-term stability, or whether they will be merely a truce that precedes a new round of confrontation.
