The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) announced that the volume of global fertilizer trade will decline by 30% during the first four months of 2026, in the context of the war in the Middle East.
She explained in a report that between last January and April, the trading volume reached 41 million tons, compared to 58 million tons during the same period in 2025, after farmers postponed purchases due to high fertilizer prices and low grain prices, noting that at the same time, several countries, including China, Russia, Turkey, and Egypt, imposed restrictions on their fertilizer exports, which led to a further decline in the volume of trade.
The volume of this trade fell to $18 billion in the first four months of the year, a decline of 18% year-on-year.
Since February 28, the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted the fertilizer trade in the Gulf, and caused a comprehensive rise in the prices of these commodities whose production depends on gas. Their prices increased by an average of 25% between last February and May, while the prices of fertilizers that use gas in their production increased by a greater percentage, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s monitoring index.
The FAO pointed out that “even if the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz starting this June is the most likely scenario, the recovery of commodities containing nitrogen, phosphate and sulfur will be slow and irregular, which means the continuation of the historical rise in prices, even if they are declining.”
She stated that “the most prominent factors of uncertainty are the pace and sustainability” of the ceasefire, the possibility of additional escalation in the Middle East, and the climatic conditions that may affect demand and the development of grain prices.
