The agreement that the United States and Iran are close to signing is entering a sensitive phase that goes beyond the Strait of Hormuz and the oil file directly to Lebanon, as it includes, according to an American official, an extension of the ceasefire for a period of 60 days, opening the strait to navigation, and allowing Tehran to sell oil freely, in parallel with negotiations on curbing its nuclear program, provided that the draft understanding also includes ending the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
According to a report by journalist Barak Ravid in Axios, the proposed agreement aims to avoid escalation of the war and relieve pressure on global oil supplies, but it does not yet clarify whether it will lead to a permanent peace agreement that also addresses the demands of US President Donald Trump regarding the Iranian nuclear file.
The report indicated that Trump and the mediators indicated that the agreement might be announced on Sunday, but it has not been finalized yet, and the possibility of its collapse still exists. An American official gave a detailed presentation of the draft agreement in its current form, and most of what was contained in it was verified by other sources close to the talks. However, these details were not confirmed by the Iranian side, although Tehran, in turn, indicated that an agreement was close.
According to the draft, the two parties sign a memorandum of understanding lasting 60 days, which can be extended by mutual consent. During this period, the Strait of Hormuz is opened without any fees, and Iran agrees to remove the mines it deployed in the Strait to allow ships to pass freely.
In return, the United States lifts its blockade on Iranian ports and issues some exemptions from sanctions, allowing Iran to sell oil freely. The American official acknowledged that this would be a gain for the Iranian economy, but said that it would also provide great relief to the global oil market.
The American official explained that the speed of lifting the blockade will be linked to the speed of the Iranians’ move to remove mines and resume shipping traffic, noting that the basic principle adopted by Trump in the agreement is “relief in exchange for performance.”
According to the same official, Iran wanted the immediate release of its frozen funds and a permanent lifting of sanctions, but the American side stressed that this would not happen until concrete concessions were made.
Regarding the nuclear file, the draft memorandum of understanding includes commitments from Iran to never seek to possess nuclear weapons, and to negotiate the suspension of its uranium enrichment program and the removal of its stock of highly enriched uranium, according to what the report quoted the American official.
According to two informed sources, Iran has provided the United States, through mediators, with verbal commitments regarding the size of the concessions it is prepared to make regarding the issue of suspending enrichment and abandoning nuclear materials.
In return, the United States agrees to negotiate within the 60-day period the lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen Iranian funds, but these steps will only be implemented within a final agreement that is implemented in a verifiable manner.
The American forces that were mobilized in recent months will also remain inside the region during the 60-day period, provided that they will not withdraw unless a final agreement is reached.
The most sensitive item for Lebanon is that the draft memorandum of understanding also makes clear that the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon will end.
The report quoted an Israeli official as saying that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed his concern about this condition during a phone call with Trump on Saturday. He also expressed concerns about other aspects of the agreement, but presented his position in a respectful and considerate manner, according to an American official.
The American official explained that the ceasefire would not be “unilateral,” and that if Hezbollah tried to rearm or incite attacks, Israel would be allowed to take action to prevent this. He added: “If Hezbollah acts, Israel will act.”
“Bibi has his own internal calculations, but Trump has the interests of the United States and the global economy to think about,” the American official said, using Netanyahu’s nickname.
In the background of the communications, Trump sought the opinions of a number of Arab and Muslim leaders regarding the agreement during a telephone conference on Saturday, and all of them expressed their support for it, according to 3 sources familiar with the conversation.
The call included Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed, whom the report described as having hard-line stances, according to the American official. The leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan also participated, all of which participated in mediation efforts.
Pakistan assumed the primary role in the mediation, led by Field Marshal Asim Munir, who was in Tehran on Friday and Saturday in an attempt to push the agreement towards the finish line.
According to the report, Trump hesitated in recent days between moving forward with the agreement and launching a wide wave of strikes against Iran. However, until Saturday evening, he was leaning towards a diplomatic solution.
The US administration in the White House hopes that the final differences will be resolved in the coming hours, and that the agreement will be announced on Sunday, according to the US official.
However, the official noted that the agreement may not survive the end of the 60-day period if the United States concludes that Iran is not serious about nuclear negotiations. On the other hand, Washington believes that the Iranian economic crisis constitutes an incentive to reach a comprehensive agreement that lifts sanctions and releases frozen funds.
“It will be interesting to see how far Iran is actually willing to go, but if it is able and wants to change course, this next phase will force it to make some critical decisions about what it wants to be as a country,” the US official said.
According to Trump’s advisors, if the US President’s demands related to the Iranian nuclear program are met, Trump is ready to go far in resetting relations with Iran and giving it the opportunity to strive to fully realize its economic potential, which he believes is “tremendous.”
Thus, the proposed agreement appears to be more than a temporary truce in Hormuz. It is an intertwined test between oil, nuclear, and Lebanon, where the 60-day deadline may turn into a broad settlement gateway, or a short break before a new explosion.
