Rising estimates within the Israeli security establishment reveal the extent of concern over the results of the recent war with Iran, amid growing recognition that Tehran emerged from the confrontation with the least possible losses, while the repercussions of the link between the Iranian and Lebanese fronts began to be reflected directly on the field in southern Lebanon.
According to a report by journalist Avi Ashkenazi in Maariv newspaper, there is a “great sense of failure” within the Israeli security system after the last war, in light of a growing conviction that US President Donald Trump is “unpredictable,” which makes managing the war on open fronts more complicated for Israel.
The report quoted a senior Israeli officer as saying, last Friday: “If the Iranian regime does not fall in the end, and if the war ends without removing enriched uranium from Iran, then we will have failed in the battle.”
He added: “If the regime remains and the nuclear project remains with it, the Iranians will return to rushing towards the bomb, and then we will not have achieved anything.”
The report indicated that Israel realizes that Iran will not abandon its nuclear project, and that the possibility of it delivering 450 kilograms of enriched uranium, in addition to other quantities enriched by 25%, seems very weak.
He also pointed out that Israeli estimates indicate that Iran has succeeded in preserving about 70% of its arsenal of ballistic missiles and launchers, considering this number “logical.”
The report explained that the American and Israeli air strikes targeted the entrances to missile tunnels inside the mountains, which led to the closure of some corridors and the destruction of only a limited portion of the missiles and platforms.
However, according to Israeli estimates, Iran has not stopped working to restore its military capabilities, while it is currently focusing on rebuilding air defense systems with the aim of challenging the Israeli and American air forces in the future.
In the same context, Israeli officials believe that the military option remains better than an agreement that allows the Iranian regime to emerge as a “victor” after a long war with the United States and Israel.
The report warned that Iran’s feeling that it “steadfasted and won” would constitute, according to the Israeli vision, a severe blow to the balances of the entire region.
He added that Saudi Arabia today appears, according to the Israeli description, to be a “weak country paralyzed by fear of Iran,” while the Gulf states are exposed to Iranian attacks without being able to respond despite possessing huge military arsenals.
But Israeli concern is not limited to Iran only, but also extends to the Lebanese front, as the report considered that one of the “major mistakes” in the management of the war was Israel’s allowing the United States to link the ceasefire with Iran to the fighting in Lebanon.
He pointed out that Israel was supposed to inform the Americans that Lebanon is an “independent state” and that the issue of confrontation with “Hezbollah” should not be linked to any understandings with Iran.
According to the report, the United States gave Iran “the largest possible prize” when it linked the two arenas, which was directly reflected in Hezbollah’s movements in southern Lebanon.
Israeli military commanders in Lebanon were quoted as saying that the party has begun to change its field tactics, and that the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sheikh Naim Qassem, and the party leadership are pushing members from northern Lebanon towards the south.
Although Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz boasted that the army bombed most of the bridges over the Litani River and cut off southern Lebanon from the rest of the regions, Israeli officers confirm that the water in the Litani does not exceed knee level, which means that the party does not actually need the bridges to transport reinforcements to the south.
The report added that Israel “is waging a defensive battle on only part of the Lebanese stadium,” without moving to a broad attack, warning that being satisfied with defense without offensive pressure increases the chances of receiving strikes.
In this context, the report considered that the assassination of the leader of the “Radwan Force” Ahmed Ghaleb Ballout in the southern suburbs of Beirut was a “necessary and correct step,” but it believed that such operations must turn into a daily policy that permanently targets “Hezbollah” leaders.
He added: “Hezbollah leaders should be concerned with their survival, not with planning operations against the Israeli army and the settlers of the north.”
The report concluded by saying that exerting constant pressure on Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza will ultimately lead to increased pressure on Iran itself, which it described as the “head of the snake,” considering that this may affect the outcome of the major war with Tehran.
