High oil prices and escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the Iran war raise questions about countries profiting from this situation and others losing, with conditions that made profit not related to the volume of crude production, but rather to the ability to export or its alternative paths.
According to the International Energy Agency, in early April, shipments through the Strait remained restricted, and the average loading of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and refined products reached about 3.8 million barrels per day, compared to more than 20 million barrels per day last February, before the outbreak of the crisis.
Regarding oil alone, total losses exceeded 13 million barrels per day, as a result of production cuts and damage to energy infrastructure in the region, leading to cumulative monthly supply losses of more than 360 million barrels in March and 440 million barrels expected for April.
The impact of the developments appeared directly on prices, as the International Energy Agency reported that North Sea crude oil was trading near $130 per barrel in mid-April, about $60 higher than its pre-war level.
Brent crude futures for July delivery reached $109.76 per barrel at the time of writing this report, and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for June delivery reached $102.11 per barrel.
The US Energy Information Administration expects the average price of Brent crude to reach $96 per barrel in 2026, compared to an expectation of around $69 in 2025, and that it will reach its peak in the second quarter at $115 before declining later if the movement of the strait gradually resumes. The administration’s director, Tristan Abe, said that “fully restoring flows will take months,” and that fuel prices will continue to rise until the duration of the strait’s closure, the volume of closed production, and the method of reopening it become clear.
Market strategy expert Ahmed Asiri told Al Jazeera Net that energy markets are going through what can be described as “one of the worst historical crises,” with the restructuring of crude oil and gas supply chains at the same time, especially as buyers turn to searching for sources more capable of ensuring the continuation of shipments.
Winners from rising prices
In this classification, Al Jazeera Net relies on categories that include oil exporters within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC Plus alliance, and producers outside OPEC. As for oil importers, the classification includes the major industrialized countries of the Group of Seven countries and the countries of the Group of Twenty.
The report is based on data on countries’ exports and imports for the year 2025 issued by OPEC. The organization explains that these tables include condensates, re-exports of petroleum products, and quantities of oil in transit (transit), so the calculations measure oil commercial exposure, not net government revenues or corporate profits.
The report adopts two reference prices: the first from the World Bank at $72.5 per barrel before the war, and the second at $112 a month after its outbreak, which is currently hovering around it. The difference between the two prices is $39.5 per barrel, and this is a price calculation only, and it does not assume that countries are able to export all quantities if Hormuz remains closed or the production and export infrastructure is damaged.
OPEC
The OPEC countries are the largest direct price gainers. In 2025, they exported net (i.e. exports minus imports) 23.09 million barrels per day, at a price of $72.5. The calculated value of OPEC’s annual exports is about $666 billion, taking into account the price before the war, and rises to about $1.03 trillion at $112 per barrel. The net effect of the price difference is about $333 billion per year.
But this mathematical gain is not distributed equally, because countries that are able to export via alternative routes appear to be in a better position than countries that depend directly on passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Asiri, the producing countries that benefit most from the crisis are those that have export capacity outside the scope of direct risks in the Arabian Gulf, while price increases become less effective if the shipping route is disrupted or the production and export infrastructure is damaged.
Saudi Arabia
Mathematically, Saudi Arabia is at the top of the winners, as its net oil exports in OPEC data for the year 2025 amount to about 7.42 million barrels per day, so the rise in price from 72.5 to 112 dollars adds about 107 billion dollars to the net value of exports, but the World Bank reduces its expectations for Saudi Arabia’s growth in 2026 to 3.1%, with an expected financial deficit at 3% of output, because the impact of the price collides with transportation and production restrictions in Gulf.
Asiri said that Saudi Arabia appears to be relatively the least affected among the Gulf states, despite the exposure of some oil refineries and production lines to strikes, due to the East-West line and its ability to export through the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
He added that the available figures indicate an export capacity through this route ranging between 4 and 7 million barrels per day, which allows Saudi Arabia to benefit from a significant increase in prices as long as part of the oil is still flowing, despite the disruption of some shipments from Ras Tanura and the Arabian Gulf.
Iraq and Kuwait
Iraq and Kuwait appear to be winners from a mathematical standpoint, as Iraq achieves a net impact, according to the report’s hypothesis, of approximately $49.5 billion, and Kuwait of approximately $34.6 billion, but they are among the economies most exposed to the Hormuz closure, so the World Bank expects Iraq’s economy to contract by 8.6% in 2026, and Kuwait’s economy to contract by 6.4%, with a financial deficit at 6.6% of the gross domestic product.
Asiri said that Kuwait and Iraq are among the most affected in the Gulf, because the rise in oil prices does not compensate for the disruption of shipments if the two countries are unable to send them through the Strait of Hormuz.
He pointed out that Qatar faces a more sensitive situation in the gas market, because the rise in gas prices is not enough to compensate for the halt of shipments if they cannot pass through the strait, adding that attempts to protect the flow of oil and gas through Hormuz will determine the impact of the crisis in the coming days.
Iran
OPEC data show that Iran exported about 2.08 million barrels per day of crude and products in 2025, and imported 96 thousand barrels per day, so the rise in price adds about $28.6 billion to the net value of annual exports, if it is able to export at the same pace.
But this number does not reflect the impact of the war inside Iran, the American blockade, the sanctions, or the disruption of infrastructure. The IMF expects the Iranian economy to contract by 6.1% in 2026, and inflation to reach approximately 68.9%, with the current account turning into a deficit of 1.8% of output.
Algeria, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela
Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela benefit mathematically from the rise in price, and the price difference adds $17.2 billion for Nigeria, $15.2 billion for Libya, $13.7 billion for Algeria, and $12.1 billion for Venezuela. The World Bank expects Algeria’s economy to grow by 3.7% in 2026, and Libya’s economy to grow by 4.5%, but Algeria remains under financial pressure with an expected deficit at 7.4% of output.
Allied with OPEC
Russia
Russia is the most obvious beneficiary from outside the Gulf, and it does not depend on Hormuz to export its oil. The value of its oil exports rises mathematically from $175.5 billion to $271.2 billion at a price of $112 per barrel, but there is an impact of Western sanctions that were temporarily lifted to mitigate the oil price shock.
The IMF expects Russia to grow at 1.1% in 2026, with inflation at 13.4%. These figures show that the rise in oil helps the external balance, but does not remove inflation and financing pressures.
Asiri said that Russia, along with Canada, has additional export capacity that is not limited to meeting domestic consumption, approaching 5 million barrels per day for each of them, so they come after the United States among the countries that benefited most from the crisis from a commercial point of view.
Oman and Bahrain
Oman is a net exporter of oil, and mathematically, the value of its exports increases from 30.1 to 46.4 billion dollars annually in the price calculation, while Bahrain records a limited net gain of about 1.9 billion dollars, given its relatively large oil imports compared to its exports.
The World Bank expects Oman to have a fiscal surplus of 3.1% of GDP in 2026, while Bahrain expects a fiscal deficit of 10.2% of GDP.
The UAE
The UAE records a net price gain of approximately $47.5 billion annually according to oil trade accounts, and the World Bank expects it to achieve a financial surplus of 4.4% of output in 2026, and a current account surplus of 13.6% of output, but it remains, like the majority of Gulf countries, vulnerable to disruption of maritime traffic.
The UAE announced its exit from OPEC and the “OPEC Plus” alliance starting this month.
Asiri said that the UAE comes after Saudi Arabia in terms of being relatively least affected within the Gulf, due to its ability to export from the port of Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz, but he explained that the absence of accurate public figures makes estimating the volume of flows from this route difficult, despite there being indications of the continuation of some exports.
Group of Seven
US
The price difference adds about $40.3 billion to the net US oil trade in the annual account, but that does not mean that the US economy is profitable in general, as the IMF expects it to grow by 2.3% in 2026, and at the same time it is expected that the general deficit in the government finances will deteriorate by about 0.7% to 7.5% of output, and that public debt will rise from 124% of output in 2025 to 142% in 2031.
Asiri said that the United States is the “biggest winner” from the current crisis, because it produces about 13.5 million barrels per day, a large portion of which is concentrated in the state of Texas, and it also sells about 45% of its production outside the country.
He added that US exports of its oil production are approximately 6 million barrels per day, and that these quantities have become more attractive to foreign buyers who in previous years relied on wider options, and Gulf oil was closest to Asian markets.
Canada
Canada benefits from the rise in price given that its net oil exports, according to OPEC, amount to 3.24 million barrels per day, which adds about $46.7 billion annually at the price difference. However, the IMF expects limited economic growth for Canada at 1.5% in 2026.
According to Asiri, Canada is included, along with Russia, among the countries that benefit from prolonging the crisis, because it has a relatively large production and export capacity, and does not face the same risk of disruption that transit shipments from the Gulf face.
Japan and Europe
Japan is the biggest loser within the G7, with a negative net impact of about $40.7 billion annually, according to import calculations included in the OPEC report, while Germany loses about $25.5 billion, France $18.3 billion, Italy $13.3 billion, and Britain $9 billion.
The IMF expects inflation in the euro zone to temporarily increase to above 2% in 2026 and to remain above the target in 2027. It is also expected that inflation in Britain will approach 4% before returning to the target by the end of 2027 as the impact of energy prices fades.
Asiri said that the countries that do not benefit from the current shock are concentrated in Asia first and then Europe, because the rise in oil and gas prices raises the import bill and puts pressure on consumers and industry, even if some economies possess strategic reserves that mitigate the impact of the shock in the first period.
G20
China
China’s imports of crude oil amount to 13.76 million barrels per day, so it is the biggest mathematical loser when applying the report’s hypothesis. By calculating its net imports and subtracting the 1.32 million barrels it exports, it appears that the price difference totals $179.4 billion in a year.
The International Monetary Fund expects China’s economy to grow by 4.4% in 2026, but indicates that economies importing goods and energy are more vulnerable to rising prices and financial pressures.
Asiri said that China is at the forefront of the losers in Asia, as the largest importer of oil, while the rest of the Asian markets, including Japan and South Korea, face similar pressure to varying degrees.
India
The IMF expects India’s economy to grow by 6.5% in 2026, but the rise in oil is putting pressure on the import bill, inflation, and the external balance, and mathematically, India records a negative net impact of approximately $69.5 billion annually.
South Korea and Japan
South Korea is one of the industrialized economies most exposed to the oil shock; According to calculations of the impact of the war, it incurs $35.4 billion a year, while Japan in turn loses $40.7 billion.
The IMF indicates that Asian energy-importing economies are directly affected by the rise in oil, but the impact of this varies according to the exchange rate, government support, and the energy mix.
Asiri said that Japan and South Korea have strategic reserves that will help them in the first phase of the crisis, but they do not seem sufficient if the disruption lasts for additional months.
He explained that Singapore represents an important link in the Asian energy market, as it usually bought about 1.5 million barrels per day of oil from the UAE and Saudi Arabia, then refined it and resold the refined products to other Asian markets.
He added that the Singapore model has not been disrupted to the same extent, because it can buy oil directly from the United States to secure supplies, despite the high prices, and then pass the higher cost to the final consumer through the prices of refined products.
Brazil
Brazil exported 2.35 million barrels of oil per day last year, while it imports 874 thousand barrels per day. By calculating the price difference, Brazil adds $21.3 billion annually to its net oil trade, but the IMF expects Brazil to grow by 1.9% in 2026.
International institutions and banks
The International Energy Agency describes what happened as the largest disruption in the history of the global oil market, and says that global demand for oil may shrink in 2026 by about 80,000 barrels per day, after it had expected growth one month ago.
She adds that what is known as “demand destruction” (price stability due to the market not responding to demand pressures) began in the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific, especially in naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas, and jet fuel, and then extended with continued scarcity and high prices.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the energy-importing economies in Asia and Europe bear the brunt of the rising costs of fuel and production inputs. The Fund described the impact of this on fuel-importing countries as a “large and sudden tax on income.” It also indicated that Italy and Britain are more exposed in Europe due to reliance on gas to generate electricity, while France and Spain are relatively less exposed due to nuclear and renewable energy.
As for Morgan Stanley, it sets 3 price paths as follows:
$80 to $90 per barrel if shipment movement returns to normal within a month.
$100 to $110 if restrictions continue and 80% of tanker traffic returns within a month and if prices return to their level in the next quarter.
$150 to $180 if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for additional months.
Asiri said that any new military developments may recomplicate the scene, at a time when markets are monitoring attempts to protect the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz, and whether they will succeed in returning part of the supplies in the coming days.
