It is logical that fears about the monetary situation are based on the turbulent political, social, and security reality with the continuation of the Israeli war, the expansion of its geographical area, and the rise in its dangers on the economic, financial, and social levels, in light of the displacement of more than a million Lebanese from the south.
But it is incomprehensible that the lira and the dollar exchange rate in the markets will once again return to the spotlight, and that the citizen will once again become hostage to rumors about the price of the dollar, without having any certainty or confidence in the coming days and in his ability to withstand, especially if the scenario of the Gaza war is repeated economically and socially in Lebanon after the Israelis copied this scenario in destruction, displacement and occupation.
Since the Lebanese have been living since 2019, constantly concerned about the value of the lira and the price of the dollar, the news about the possibility that the Governor of the Bank of Lebanon, Karim Saied, would move to liberalize the exchange rate, in its timing and content, contributed to spreading confusion and raising questions about its true background, and whether it was just an economic discussion or part of a broader political conflict that goes beyond the governorship and the Central Bank, to the era and the President of the Republic, Joseph Aoun, all the way to aiming for direct negotiations with Israel.
A political source following the file told Lebanon Debate that the citizen has the right to question the reasons for reopening the lira file today, at a time when the continued economic deterioration cannot be denied. However, the way this file was presented raises doubts about the existence of goals that go beyond the financial dimension, reaching an attempt to target the Covenant and the government.
The most prominent thing in this targeting, and revealed by the source, is the use of the security in the political conflict, and it is not new, as it began during the term of former governor Riad Salama, and continued under the current governor Karim Saeed, with the “calm down” station, under pressure from Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, during the period when Wassim Mansouri assumed the duties of acting governor. According to the same source, the goal of these campaigns, which began with news and will continue through subsequent reports, is to incite public opinion and stir up internal strife by undermining confidence in the lira and monetary policies.
The source who witnessed the period that preceded and followed the financial collapse in 2019 asserts that the attack on the lira now is “particularly political,” and not the result of direct monetary or economic factors, as it is being used by a well-known political faction as a tool for pressure in other files, most notably the negotiation file with Israel.
According to this reading, the method used today is very similar to what happened previously during the 2019 crisis, where financial crises were exaggerated and public opinion was directed against the Central Bank and its policies. The source points out that the current campaign is remarkably focused on the Governor of the Bank of Lebanon and not other financial officials, which reinforces the hypothesis of the existence of direct political goals, while promoting the possibility of a collapse in the exchange rate or the dollar reaching record levels falls within the context of creating a climate of fear and popular pressure.
Despite the continued impact of the war on the Lebanese economy, the data confirm that the financial situation has not witnessed fundamental changes recently, and that the existing fears have not yet reached a stage that actually threatens the stability of the exchange rate, as a major economic authority explains that the current conditions differ from those that prevailed during the 2019 crisis, as the Lebanese economy today has become more dependent on the dollar, which reduces the ability of any party to speculate in the lira, especially since the Lebanese keep dollars and not In lira in their homes. The reference also confirms that the tools that were previously used to influence the exchange rate are no longer available today, as the lira is no longer supported in the dollarized economy.
Therefore, according to the political source, the party behind these campaigns intends to employ new and sensitive cards to influence public opinion, namely deposits and public sector salaries, and portray them as threatened. The source expects the continued leaking of news and reports that paint a bleak picture of the future of the lira, in an attempt to destabilize the psychological and economic stability of citizens, referring to the recent statement of the bank governor, in which he indicated that there were political backgrounds behind some of the news circulating, which contributed to clarifying part of the picture, and thus “revealing the political game and goals.”
On the other hand, the source does not see harmony between the Ministry of Finance and the parties behind this campaign, especially in light of the Bank of Lebanon’s assertion of full cooperation with the Ministry, which reflects a difference in positions within the political and economic scene, which leads to asking a pivotal question about the backgrounds for invoking the “exchange rate series,” and whether it was just a legitimate economic discussion in part, or an extension of the political conflict between “Hezbollah” and the President of the Republic over the file of negotiations with Israel, in which the party uses the lira as a means of pressure and influence.
