It seems clear that the situation in Lebanon falls outside the regional and international scope, as the country has become an arena in which Israel moves freely, while the Lebanese face their fate alone. In light of Washington’s announcement that Lebanon is not part of the understanding with Iran, an informed political source described what is being circulated internally about including Lebanon in any potential regional agreement between Tehran and Washington as an “inaccurate” proposal.
The source reveals that Iran is treating the Lebanese file as an independent pressure tool, which it uses in the context of its broader negotiations with the United States, along with other means, including escalation against the Gulf states.
The source indicates that the US administration’s priorities do not currently focus on the “Hezbollah” file, but rather focus mainly on the Iranian nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and navigation security in the Strait of Hormuz, with the file of the regional arms coming at a later stage. He adds that this arrangement of priorities paves the way for a partial agreement that does not include Iran’s regional influence, which creates a kind of imbalance in favor of Tehran and its allies.
On the other hand, according to the same source, Iran emphasizes keeping the party outside of any direct settlement, and thus refuses to link the ceasefire in the Gulf to any calm in Lebanon, which reflects a clear difference in positions between the two parties, and complicates the possibility of reaching a comprehensive agreement after the start of negotiations in Islamabad.
The source is likely to reach a limited agreement, which may include Iranian concessions on the nuclear file, and perhaps with regard to freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for stopping the US-Israeli military campaign and partial easing of sanctions.
However, this agreement, if achieved, will not include the party, as the source believes that Iran will continue to support the party, but Washington will leave Israel the margin to act against it in Lebanon, and therefore, the confrontation on the Iranian arena may stop, while it continues in Lebanon.
In this context, the source focuses on a basic question that arises on the eve of the start of negotiations between Washington and Tehran, which is about the possibility of including the party’s file on the negotiating table at a later stage, or will it remain outside any settlement, which leaves Lebanon an open arena for the possibilities of escalation?
