With the pace of field escalation accelerating, Israeli assessments have recently appeared talking about a possible military scenario, which is the opening of a new front from the Mount Hermon and Golan region towards the Western Bekaa.
Although this proposition has not yet become a reality, it raises serious concerns due to its potential strategic implications. If implemented, it may seek to isolate the western Bekaa from the central and northern Bekaa, and bring about a radical change in the course of military operations within Lebanese territory.
In this context, retired Brigadier General Taqi al-Din al-Tanir stated to Al-Tanir that the scenario of an Israeli advance across Mount Hermon towards the Western Bekaa is a real and serious possibility, and not just an unlikely hypothesis.
He explained that this option is constantly being presented to the Israeli military leadership, and is subject to continuous re-evaluation according to field developments. He pointed out that the current data do not rule out the possibility of resorting to it at any time if appropriate operational conditions are created.
He added that the danger of this scenario lies in its geographical and military repercussions, as its success may lead to the separation of the Western Bekaa from the Central and Northern Bekaa, which will have a negative impact on the supply and communication lines, and will greatly affect the course of the battle.
Al-Tanir pointed out that any breakthrough in this direction will cause a change in the balance of operations, given the importance of the region and the nature of the deployment of forces there, pointing out that cutting supply lines will represent a major challenge for any defending force.
Regarding the possibility of confrontation, he stressed that any progress from this axis will inevitably face resistance, stressing that the resistance work will not stop, even in the most difficult circumstances, and that the nature of the fighting will change in proportion to the field reality, whether through small units or specific operations.
He believed that one of the most important factors that has so far hindered the advance of Israeli forces is the resistance’s ability to adapt to the nature of the land and to benefit from the lessons of previous confrontations, which contributed to slowing down progress and preventing rapid or decisive breakthroughs.
As for regional possibilities, Al-Tanir ruled out any direct coordination or cooperation between the Syrian regime and Israel in this context, considering that such a scenario carries serious repercussions on the internal situation in Syria, and may lead to destabilization and the opening of unexpected internal fronts.
He also pointed out that the Syrian-Israeli border is still under undeclared control, as both parties are keen to avoid sliding into direct confrontation, which makes the option of Syrian involvement in any joint military action unlikely at the present time.
Al-Tanir concluded his speech by emphasizing that any such development will further complicate the situation in Lebanon, especially in light of the sharp internal political division, which may negatively affect general stability, and double the challenges that the country faces at this critical stage.
