Indications are increasing that there are divisions within the Iranian senior leadership, especially in light of the ongoing war, which the leadership considers a matter of survival, as disagreements emerge between hard-liners in the Revolutionary Guard and the more moderate factions of the regime.
According to a report published by Reuters, differences began to surface between the ruling elite, which had long been suppressed under the control of Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, after his death a week ago, and at a time when Iran is facing increasing military pressure as a result of American and Israeli strikes.
Informed sources from inside Iran reported that the continuous bombing and military operations prompted the Revolutionary Guard to assume a greater role in formulating the Iranian strategy, despite the heavy losses it suffered among its leaders as a result of a series of operations targeting senior leaders.
The sources, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, revealed escalating tensions between the leading figures who survived those attacks.
In another sign of tension within the regime, Iran’s clerics are seeking to speed up the process of selecting a new supreme leader to succeed Khamenei, with a decision likely to be made soon.
Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s son, is seen as the most likely to assume the position with the support of the Revolutionary Guards and his father’s former office, but his lack of political and military experience has raised reservations within some circles of the regime.
It is also estimated that other candidates may have difficulty obtaining full loyalty to the Revolutionary Guards, an essential element for maintaining regime cohesion.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s apology to the countries of the region for the attacks that affected their lands during the past days sparked widespread anger among the ranks of hardliners within the Revolutionary Guard and the conservative elite.
In explicit criticism, hard-line Iranian MP Hamid Rasaei attacked President Pezeshkian on social media, describing his position as “weak and unacceptable.”
Following the wave of criticism, Pezeshkian published a new statement on social media in which he deleted the apology that had angered extremists, in a move that observers considered a clear reversal.
Although the various movements within the Iranian regime agree on the necessity of defending Iran and its regime against the United States and Israel, divisions have become clear about the most appropriate way to manage the confrontation.
Alex Vatanka, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, said that wars often reveal the true centers of power within political systems, noting that the most influential voice in Iran currently is the voice of the Revolutionary Guard, not the civilian leadership.
The political system in Iran is subject to the authority of the Supreme Leader, who has broad powers and supervises the Revolutionary Guard and major security institutions.
During the 36 years of Khamenei’s rule, he often managed the balance between hard-line and moderate movements within the regime, while retaining the final say.
After his death, power temporarily transferred to an interim leadership council that included President Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary, and a cleric from the Guardian Council.
But even within this council, signs of tension began to appear, as the head of the judiciary, Gholam Hossein Mohseni, called for the continuation of strong strikes against targets linked to countries that allowed their territories to be used to attack Iran, in a position that contradicts Pezeshkian’s more appeasement-oriented rhetoric.
Observers believe that these disputes reflect a sensitive stage within the Iranian regime in light of the absence of the figure who held the threads of power and maintained its balance for decades.
