Tel Aviv is witnessing cautious anticipation, as Israeli security assessments indicate the possibility of failure of the diplomatic track and the high chances of the United States launching a military strike against Iran, which may result in the expansion of the scope of the conflict regionally, especially on the Lebanese front.
Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper quoted Israeli security sources as saying that Israel is “awaiting the worst scenario,” with mounting fears of Hezbollah’s intervention in any upcoming war, if Iran is subjected to a direct attack.
According to these estimates, Hezbollah, which did not directly participate in what is known as the “12-day war,” has since been working to rebuild its military and organizational capabilities. The same sources believe that the possibility of it entering into a confrontation has become great in the event of a comprehensive war breaking out, given its connection to a regional axis led by Iran.
The sources indicate that the party is considering the option of waiting and strengthening its strength, and at the same time, the possibility of engaging in a broad confrontation in support of Tehran, a scenario that Tel Aviv describes as “extremely worrying” and confirms that it is preparing for it at all military and security levels.
In this context, the Israeli army announced the implementation of air strikes targeting 8 sites in the Baalbek region in eastern Lebanon, which it claimed belonged to the “Radwan Force.” On the other hand, Lebanese sources reported that about 25 air strikes took place near Baalbek, resulting in the death of a Syrian civilian in addition to extensive material damage.
Israel considers these strikes to come in the context of preventing repositioning or developing military capabilities, while in Lebanon they are viewed as part of a policy of continued military pressure.
There is a widespread belief in Israel that any potential American attack on Iran will face a direct or indirect Iranian response, which may include targeting Israel. Tel Aviv also takes into account the possibility of action by other regional parties, including the Houthi group in Yemen, which has previously fired missiles towards Israel during previous rounds of escalation.
In this context, an increase in American-Israeli military coordination was observed, with the arrival of advanced American F-22 fighter planes to bases in the region, indicating joint preparations in anticipation of any development on the ground.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had previously stated that Israel “will not start a war,” but will “respond with unprecedented force” if it is attacked. It is noteworthy that last May, Netanyahu visited the Weizmann Institute in Rehovot to inspect the extensive damage it sustained after Iranian missiles fell.
On the other hand, media reports, including what was published by Politico, spoke of discussions within American circles about Israel’s role in any potential confrontation with Iran, which Tel Aviv refuses to comment on officially.
These developments come at a time when diplomatic talks in Geneva continue in an ambiguous atmosphere, reflecting a state of anticipation mixed with anxiety in Israel, especially with regard to the northern front.
Observers believe that Hezbollah’s position remains the most sensitive factor in the equation of deterrence and escalation, at a time when the region appears to be at a crossroads between containing tension or sliding into a broader confrontation that may extend from Iran to Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen.
