Attention within the Hamas movement is focused on the internal elections, which are taking place at one of the most delicate stages in the movement’s history, which extends for about forty years. These elections coincide with the field challenges resulting from the ongoing war on the Gaza Strip, in addition to the leadership vacuum left by the martyrdom of a number of the movement’s most prominent leaders.
In this context, there is an intense competition between two main figures to succeed the movement’s leadership, namely Khaled Meshaal and Khalil Al-Hayya. This competition reflects the movement’s political choices and defines its priorities for the future.
In this regard, the writer and political analyst Tawfiq Shoman explained in an interview with, “The elections conducted by the Hamas movement mainly come to fill the voids that arose after the martyrdom of a number of military and political leaders, as a result of the continuing Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, including Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar.”
Shoman pointed out, “These elections are considered exceptional in nature, as their goal is limited to running the political bureau for a period of one year only, after which the movement returns to organizing comprehensive internal elections, leading to the formation of new leadership frameworks that will supervise the general course of the movement in the subsequent stage.”
He added, “The data available so far show that Khalil Al-Hayya, who is close to the military wing of Hamas and was born in the Gaza Strip, and Khaled Meshaal, who was born in the West Bank, are the two most prominent figures to assume leadership of the movement.”
He also stated that “many estimates tend to consider Al-Hayya the closest to the leadership of Hamas in the next stage, due to his closeness to the military leadership and his pivotal role in managing and leading the negotiation process during the current stage, which makes it likely that he will assume the presidency of the political bureau.”
However, Shoman stressed, on the other hand, that “this scenario does not eliminate the possibility of consensus within the movement’s leadership to recycle the organizational angles, by distributing roles between inside and outside, such that Khalil Al-Hayya assumes leadership of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, while Khaled Meshaal assumes the presidency of the political bureau abroad, which is a model that the movement has previously adopted in previous stations.”
He concluded his speech by noting that “this arrangement, if it occurs, will remain temporary in nature, provided that the final leadership options will be decided a year from now, when Hamas holds its general internal elections and chooses its leaders for a full term extending for four years, after the year 2027, in a step that will determine the features of the movement’s political and organizational direction in the post-war phase.”
