In recent hours, the Legislation and Consultation Authority’s response to the Minister of the Interior’s request regarding expatriates’ ballots topped the discussions in Lebanese political circles. The response confirmed the right of expatriates to vote from abroad for 128 representatives according to the current electoral law, “which is better.” This response reflects the continuing controversy over the legitimacy of organizing elections and expatriate voting procedures, amid fears of the impact of regional developments on the scheduled dates for the elections.
Writer and political analyst George Alam explains that the move towards expatriate voting must pass through the House of Representatives, as it requires holding a session of the House to build the decision on a sound legal basis. According to his opinion, consultation does not become binding until it is legally approved by the Council.
Alam believes that things are moving in this direction, especially if the Minister of Interior has decided to abolish the 16th district, which means that expatriates will elect the 128 representatives as well as residents according to their electoral districts. However, as he explains, this matter requires a legal study within the House of Representatives to evaluate its validity.
However, Alam expects that the elections may not take place, considering that external developments, not internal ones, are the deciding factor. The internal situation does not indicate the existence of understandings about the electoral law, which makes the elections affected by the regional and international climate more than the local climate. Particularly noteworthy is the international demands related to reforms, arms control, and the prosecution of the corrupt, and the impact this has on the continuation of the current political class.
Alam draws attention to the fact that any escalation of the situation into a regional conflict may negatively affect Lebanon and make holding elections difficult. Therefore, he expresses reservations about the possibility of holding it in May, expecting that the probability will not exceed 50% on the specified date.
Alam points out that internal disagreements over elections and the law continue, in addition to external influences that must be taken into account. With Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri announcing his intention to run for elections, and Walid Jumblatt insisting on holding them on time, the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister in turn confirm that the elections will take place on time. The question remains whether internal and external conditions can achieve this.
Alam believes that there are Lebanese parties that oppose President Berri because of his clear position on the elections, the disruption of the House of Representatives, and the failure to discuss amendments to the electoral law, which reflects the internal conflict. However, according to his opinion, the final say rests with the outside world.
Despite the political class’s insistence on holding the elections on time, Alam points out the necessity of waiting for regional developments. If a major settlement occurs in the region, the chances of holding elections will increase, otherwise the risk of postponement remains.
Alam links the Iranian-American negotiations to the Lebanese political scene, considering that the international bodies that support Lebanon in reforms, arms control, and the prosecution of the corrupt will not accept re-elections with the same current political composition, which may lead to the emergence of vetoes that disrupt this movement.
Alam concludes that the elections, if held, will be more like accountability than true democratic elections, unless regional developments occur that make conditions conducive to holding them “in the best way.”
