Beirut 1 Investment Conference: Expectations that contradict economic reality

Sabine Owais wrote in “An-Nahar”: Before the Minister of Economy, Amer Al-Bassat, headed to Washington to participate in the meetings of the International Monetary Fund, he launched from Baabda Palace the “Beirut 1” investment conference aimed at stimulating investment opportunities, under the auspices of the President of the Republic.

Al-Bassat bases his optimistic expectations for the success of this conference, which is initially scheduled to be held next November 18 and 19, on the fact that Lebanon is entering a phase of recovery, supported by good economic indicators, which he reported to the President of the Republic and which the latter revealed in his meeting the day before yesterday with a delegation from the Economic Media Association, when he revealed that expectations for growth will reach 5 percent and financial flows will reach 20 billion dollars.
Al-Bassat is counting on the private sector to finance the organization of the conference, which is mainly directed at this sector, as well as the Lebanese diaspora and Arab and foreign investors.
The conference aims to attract foreign investments, estimated at between 7 and 8 billion dollars, to invest in the infrastructure, service, production and technology sectors. This means that it is not an alternative to the international support conference for reconstruction that Paris seeks to hold, but rather it will be the beginning of it, as well as the army support conference, especially since without the two international support conferences there are still obstacles related to the political conditions placed on Lebanon and related to the implementation of the decision to limit arms to the state, which is expected to intensify in the next stage after the Gaza file was closed and international attention shifted to the Lebanese file.
Despite the positive climate encouraging the holding of the conference on the basis that it will be a conference made in and for Lebanon, obstacles still remain related to the international political conditions that link any foreign investment to Lebanon’s implementation of the arms control decision.
It is true that the idea of ​​holding a conference in Beirut under the name “Beirut 1” is not new, as the government of President Najib Mikati had launched a similar conference in 2005, but circumstances at that stage prevented it from being held.
The chances of holding the conference, which will be sponsored by the President of the Republic, on time are still uncertain, awaiting the return of the mat from Washington to hold a meeting next Tuesday with the economic bodies and fix the date, after it was reported that it may be postponed until the end of November. Although the economic bodies welcome the proposal adopted and sponsored by the President of the Republic, some circles are expressing reservations due to the high expectations of the Minister of Economy, especially since a conference like this requires many factors for its success, the first of which is good preparation and organization, which are being worked on vigorously, but they are subject to the limited time required for their availability. The Ministry of Economy, together with the economic bodies concerned with financing, is making efforts to Practical efforts were made to complete the required preparations on time for the conference.
The second factor lies in the economic community’s fear of exaggerating the size of expectations in light of talk about investments exceeding 7 to 8 billion dollars, especially since the reliance will be on the involvement of the Lebanese diaspora in the projects planned to be put forward for investment, and regulations for which are currently being prepared to be marketed during the conference.
Although the President said that Lebanon will enter the path of settlement, negotiation and dialogue, economic circles believe that the proposal to hold a conference in Beirut reflects a commitment to launching the path of Lebanese economic and investment recovery that accompanies any political settlement that ends the conflict in the country.

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