The battle for control of the US Senate is entering a very sensitive stage as the midterm elections approach next November. The Democratic and Republican parties are locked in tight and close races in a number of states, which may redraw the balance of power within Congress, amid huge electoral spending and remarkable shifts in opinion polls that make the possibility of a legislative majority transition more realistic than it was at the beginning of the electoral cycle.
Republicans currently have a relatively comfortable majority of 53 seats compared to 47 for Democrats. On the other hand, Democrats are seeking to achieve qualitative breakthroughs in states that President Donald Trump decided for his vote in 2024 – some by a difference of more than 10 percentage points – in order to seize control of the House, a goal that was previously seen as out of reach.
The Democrats’ top priority is to defend their current seats, most notably Senator Jon Ossoff’s seat in Georgia, where Trump won by two points in 2024. Ossoff has proven highly efficient in fundraising, recording $98 million as of the end of June, and he entered July with $43 million, compared to $7.4 million raised by his Republican rival, Mike Collins. Recent polls indicate that Ossoff (the likely candidate for the 2028 presidential race) is ahead by double digits, despite Republicans spending $17 million compared to $15 million for Democrats.
In Michigan, keeping the seat open is a key plank of the Democrats’ strategy; His loss would force them to seize five Republican seats to achieve a majority. After Abdul Sayed narrowly won the primary election over Representative Haley Stevens, he faces former Republican Representative Mike Rogers in a state that Trump won by one point. While Rogers sought to distance himself from some of Trump’s policies, Al-Sayed received the support of former Vice President Kamala Harris and is anticipating the participation of former President Barack Obama. Opinion polls show Al-Sayed leading by a margin of between one and seven points, amid intense Republican spending amounting to $86 million compared to $41 million for Democrats.
As for New Hampshire, Democratic Representative Chris Pappas is in a fierce competition for a vacant seat – following the retirement of Senator Jeanne Shaheen – against former Republican Senator John Sununu. Despite Republicans’ superiority in spending (25 million compared to 12 million), Pappas leads in opinion polls by a margin of between five and eight percentage points, based on his financial superiority supported by Harris winning the state in 2024 by a margin of approximately three points.
In the state of Maine, one of the most prominent Democratic attacks stands out against Republican Senator Susan Collins, in a state where Harris gained a margin of seven points. Collins tried to distance herself from Trump and the party leadership, and despite having $11 million in cash, polls indicate that her new Democratic rival, Troy Jackson (who replaced Graham Blattner following a political crisis), is ahead by about four points, exceeding Republican spending, which exceeded $50 million compared to $26 million for the Democrats.
In North Carolina, the competition has become a golden opportunity for Democrats after Republican Senator Thom Tillis decided not to run for a new term. Democrats pitted former state governor Roy Cooper against Republican Michael Whatley. Despite Republicans pumping $45 million, Cooper maintained his lead in the September and October polls, exceeding ten points in some of them, and supported by the proceeds of donations amounting to $35 million.
In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is running in a complicated race against Republican Senator Jon Husted (J.D. Vance’s successor after he moved to the White House). This race has become the most expensive domestically, with external spending exceeding $200 million (including $143 million for Republicans), with Brown raising $39 million to complete the remainder of a term that ends in January 2029.
In Alaska, Republicans face the risk of losing Senator Dan Sullivan’s seat to former Representative Mary Peltola, despite Trump winning the state by 13 points. The election is conducted according to a preferential voting system, with polls showing a strong closeness or lead for Peltola, whose donations exceeded her competitor by seven million dollars, compared to Republican spending amounting to 28 million, compared to 21 million for the Democrats.
The contest extended to Iowa, where Trump’s declining popularity and economic controversy put Republicans on the defensive after the retirement of Senator Joni Ernst. Republican Representative Ashley Hinson is running in a very close race against Democrat Josh Turek, amid a slight financial advantage for Hinson and Republican spending amounting to $51 million compared to $42 million for the Democrats.
In Texas, Democrat James Tallarico is seeking to break the Republican monopoly that has continued since 1994 by confronting Attorney General Ken Paxton. Although Trump won the state by 14 points, Republicans spent about $210 million to defend the seat amid internal tensions and disagreements between Trump and Paxton. On the other hand, Talarico collected more donations than his competitor by about $60 million, and polls indicate a possible tie or lead for Talarico of up to six points.
In an unexpected electoral surprise in Kansas – which had already been excluded from the swing state accounts – Republicans were forced to divert financial resources to support Senator Roger Marshall against Reverend Adam Hamilton. Polls show Hamilton ahead by a margin of between one and five points, despite Marshall’s superiority in cash flow and donations, which reflects the unusual state of polarization in this state, which Trump won by 16 points in 2024.
As the November voting date approaches, the battle for control of the Senate goes beyond the boundaries of traditional swing states to reach Republican strongholds where Trump achieved comfortable victories two years ago, which makes the electoral scene open to various scenarios and places the Republican majority before an extremely difficult political and mobilizational test.
